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On the feasibility of a monetary union in the Southern Africa Development Community

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Author Info
Terence D. Agbeyegbe (Department of Economics, Hunter College and the Graduate Center, CUNY, USA)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the feasibility of a monetary union in Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) by looking at evidence of nominal exchange rate and inflation convergence. Using a methodology based on estimating time-varying parameters, the evidence suggests non-convergence. The non-convergence of nominal exchange rate and consumer price inflation suggests that presently the chances of SADC member countries satisfying some form of Maastricht-type criteria is quite low. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.323
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 150-157
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:13:y:2008:i:2:p:150-157

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  3. Ademola Oyejide, T., 1997. "Regional Integration and Trade Liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa," Papers 28s, African Economic Research Consortium.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
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  7. Alberto Alesina & Robert Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1958, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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    • Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2002. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Working Papers 9072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    • Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Optimal Currency Areas," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 301-356 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  8. Arvind Subramanian, 2000. "Trade and Trade Policies in Eastern and Southern Africa," IMF Occasional Papers 196, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Lafrance, Robert & St-Amant, Pierre, 1999. "Optimal Currency Areas: A Review of the Recent Literature," Working Papers 99-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bayoumi, Tamim & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1997. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 412-44, October.
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  11. Guillaume, Dominique M. & Stasavage, David, 2000. "Improving Policy Credibility: Is There a Case for African Monetary Unions?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1391-1407, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hall, S G & Robertson, D & Wickens, M R, 1992. "Measuring Convergence of the EC Economies," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(0), pages 99-111, Supplemen.
  14. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Hall, Stephen G & Robertson D & Wickens, M R, 1997. "Measuring Economic Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 131-43, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Mills, Terence C & Holmes, Mark J, 1999. "Common Trends and Cycles in European Industrial Production: Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Convergence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(4), pages 557-87, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Rodney Thom, 1995. "Inflation convergence in the EMS: Some additional evidence. A comment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 577-586, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-18, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Bayoumi, T. & Eichengreen, B., 1994. "One Money or Many? Analysing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Princeton Studies in International Economics 76, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2009. "Endogenous optimal currency areas: The case of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community," Discussion Papers Series 390, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
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