Bubbles and fads in the stock market: another look at the experience of the US

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Bubbles and fads in the stock market: another look at the experience of the US

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Piergiorgio Alessandri (University of London, UK)

Abstract

This paper considers a standard present-value equity price formula where the discount factor is driven by the real return on short-term public debt. We discuss a state-space formulation by which prices can be decomposed into fundamental and non-fundamental components. The model is estimated on annual US data. The stochastic discount factor explains part of the volatility in equity values, but it is not sufficient per se to exclude the occurrence of near-exponential bubbles in the price-dividend ratio. These disappear if the dividend is replaced by a broader measure of the income flow generated by the firms. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 11 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 195-203
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:11:y:2006:i:3:p:195-203

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Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Other versions:
- Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1992. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 3091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Granger, E.J. & Swanson, N.R., 1996. "An introduction to stochastic Unit Root Processes," Papers 4-96-3, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
Other versions:
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Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1142-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 1462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," Working papers 353, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Robert J. Shiller, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Charemza, Wojciech W. & Deadman, Derek F., 1995. "Speculative bubbles with stochastic explosive roots: The failure of unit root testing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 153-163, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D., 1982. "Kalman filtering estimation of unobserved rational expectations with an application to the German hyperinflation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 255-284, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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