Efficiency Allocation of Provincial Carbon Reduction Target in China’s “13·5” Period: Based on Zero-Sum-Gains SBM Model

Firstly, we introduce the “Zero Sum Gains” game theory into the SBM (Slacks-based Measure) model, and establish the ZSG-SBM model. Then, set up 4 development scenarios for the China’s economic system in “13·5” (The Chinese government formulates a Five-Year Planning for national economic and social development every five years, “13·5” means 2016 to 2020.) period through two dimensions as economic growth and energy consumption structure, and make the efficient allocation in provincial level of carbon reduction target by using the above ZSG-SBM model based on the China’s overall carbon reduction constraint (18%) which is set in “13·5” planning. Finally, we analyze the provincial development path of low-carbon economy by comparing the economic development status with the allocated result of carbon reduction target. Results show that: After the ZSG-SBM model being applied to the efficiency allocation of carbon emission, the input and output indicators of the 30 provinces realize the effective allocation, and the carbon emission efficiency reaches the efficiency frontier. The equity-oriented administrative allocation scheme of government will bring about efficiency loss in a certain degree, and the efficiency allocation scheme, based on the ZSG-SBM model, fits better with the long-term development requirement of low-carbon economy. On the basis of carbon intensity constraint, the re-constraint of energy intensity will force the provinces to optimize their energy consumption structure, thereby enhancing the overall carbon emission efficiency of China. Sixteen provinces’ allocation results of carbon reduction target are above China’s average (18%) in “13·5” period, all the provinces should select appropriate development path of low-carbon economy according to the status of their resource endowment, economic level, industrial structure and energy consumption structure.