IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2023i9p7386-d1136076.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Accounting for Weather Variability in Farm Management Resource Allocation in Northern Ghana: An Integrated Modeling Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Opeyemi Obafemi Adelesi

    (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany)

  • Yean-Uk Kim

    (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany)

  • Heidi Webber

    (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany)

  • Peter Zander

    (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany)

  • Johannes Schuler

    (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany)

  • Seyed-Ali Hosseini-Yekani

    (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany)

  • Dilys Sefakor MacCarthy

    (Soil and Irrigation Research Centre, School of Agriculture, University of Ghana, Accra P.O. Box LG 68, Ghana)

  • Alhassan Lansah Abdulai

    (CSIR-Savanna Agricultural Research Institute, Tamale P.O. Box TL 52, Ghana)

  • Karin van der Wiel

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, 3731 GA De Bilt, The Netherlands)

  • Pierre C. Sibiry Traore

    (ICRISAT-Senegal, Dakar P.O. Box 24365, Senegal
    Manobi Africa PLC, Dakar P.O. Box 25026, Senegal)

  • Samuel Godfried Kwasi Adiku

    (Department of Soil Science, University of Ghana, Accra P.O. Box LG 245, Ghana)

Abstract

Smallholder farmers in Northern Ghana face challenges due to weather variability and market volatility, hindering their ability to invest in sustainable intensification options. Modeling can help understand the relationships between productivity, environmental, and economical aspects, but few models have explored the effects of weather variability on crop management and resource allocation. This study introduces an integrated modeling approach to optimize resource allocation for smallholder mixed crop and livestock farming systems in Northern Ghana. The model combines a process-based crop model, farm simulation model, and annual optimization model. Crop model simulations are driven by a large ensemble of weather time series for two scenarios: good and bad weather. The model accounts for the effects of climate risks on farm management decisions, which can help in supporting investments in sustainable intensification practices, thereby bringing smallholder farmers out of poverty traps. The model was simulated for three different farm types represented in the region. The results suggest that farmers could increase their income by allocating more than 80% of their land to cash crops such as rice, groundnut, and soybeans. The optimized cropping patterns have an over 50% probability of increasing farm income, particularly under bad weather scenarios, compared with current cropping systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Opeyemi Obafemi Adelesi & Yean-Uk Kim & Heidi Webber & Peter Zander & Johannes Schuler & Seyed-Ali Hosseini-Yekani & Dilys Sefakor MacCarthy & Alhassan Lansah Abdulai & Karin van der Wiel & Pierre C. , 2023. "Accounting for Weather Variability in Farm Management Resource Allocation in Northern Ghana: An Integrated Modeling Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:9:p:7386-:d:1136076
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/9/7386/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/9/7386/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. Deser & F. Lehner & K. B. Rodgers & T. Ault & T. L. Delworth & P. N. DiNezio & A. Fiore & C. Frankignoul & J. C. Fyfe & D. E. Horton & J. E. Kay & R. Knutti & N. S. Lovenduski & J. Marotzke & K. A., 2020. "Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(4), pages 277-286, April.
    2. Wolf, Joost & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Kros, Johannes & Webber, Heidi & Zhao, Gang & Britz, Wolfgang & Reinds, Gert Jan & Ewert, Frank & de Vries, Wim, 2015. "Combined analysis of climate, technological and price changes on future arable farming systems in Europe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 56-73.
    3. Kamel Louhichi & Guillermo Flichman & Jean Boisson, 2010. "Bio-economic modelling of soil erosion externalities and policy options: a Tunisian case study," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 145-167, July.
    4. Mouysset, L. & Doyen, L. & Jiguet, F. & Allaire, G. & Leger, F., 2011. "Bio economic modeling for a sustainable management of biodiversity in agricultural lands," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 617-626, February.
    5. Tang, Kai & Hailu, Atakelty, 2020. "Smallholder farms’ adaptation to the impacts of climate change: Evidence from China’s Loess Plateau," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Bruno Barbier, 1998. "Induced innovation and land degradation: Results from a bioeconomic model of a village in West Africa," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 19(1-2), pages 15-25, September.
    7. McDonald, C.K. & MacLeod, N.D. & Lisson, S. & Corfield, J.P., 2019. "The Integrated Analysis Tool (IAT) – A model for the evaluation of crop-livestock and socio-economic interventions in smallholder farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    8. ALHASSAN, Hamdiyah & KWAKWA, Paul Adjei & ADZAWLA, William, 2019. "Farmers Choice Of Adaptation Strategies To Climate Change And Variability In Arid Region Of Ghana," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 22(1), March.
    9. Anslem Bawayelaazaa Nyuor & Emmanuel Donkor & Robert Aidoo & Samuel Saaka Buah & Jesse B. Naab & Stephen K. Nutsugah & Jules Bayala & Robert Zougmoré, 2016. "Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Cereal Production: Implications for Sustainable Agriculture in Northern Ghana," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-17, August.
    10. Lê, Sébastien & Josse, Julie & Husson, François, 2008. "FactoMineR: An R Package for Multivariate Analysis," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 25(i01).
    11. Luz Maria Castro & Fabian Härtl & Santiago Ochoa & Baltazar Calvas & Leonardo Izquierdo & Thomas Knoke, 2018. "Integrated bio-economic models as tools to support land-use decision making: a review of potential and limitations," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 183-211, July.
    12. Jules N. Pretty, 1997. "The sustainable intensification of agriculture," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(4), pages 247-256, November.
    13. Bisrat Haile Gebrekidan & Thomas Heckelei & Sebastian Rasch, 2020. "Characterizing Farmers and Farming System in Kilombero Valley Floodplain, Tanzania," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-21, August.
    14. Webber, Heidi & Gaiser, Thomas & Ewert, Frank, 2014. "What role can crop models play in supporting climate change adaptation decisions to enhance food security in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 161-177.
    15. Hans P. Binswanger-Mkhize, 2012. "Is There Too Much Hype about Index-based Agricultural Insurance?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 187-200, February.
    16. Barbier, Bruno, 1998. "Induced innovation and land degradation: Results from a bioeconomic model of a village in West Africa," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 19(1-2), pages 15-25, September.
    17. John T. Scott & Chester B. Baker, 1972. "A Practical Way to Select an Optimum Farm Plan Under Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 54(4_Part_1), pages 657-660.
    18. Mustapha A. Sadiq & John K. M. Kuwornu & Ramatu M. Al-Hassan & Suhiyini I. Alhassan, 2019. "Assessing Maize Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Variability in Ghana," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-17, April.
    19. Huet, E.K. & Adam, M. & Giller, K.E. & Descheemaeker, K., 2020. "Diversity in perception and management of farming risks in southern Mali," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    20. Wolfram Laube & Benjamin Schraven & Martha Awo, 2012. "Smallholder adaptation to climate change: dynamics and limits in Northern Ghana," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(3), pages 753-774, April.
    21. Robert Aidoo & James Osei Mensah & Prosper Wie & Dadson Awunyo-vitor, 2014. "Prospects of Crop Insurance as a Risk Management Tool among Arable Crop Farmers in Ghana," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(3), pages 341-354, March.
    22. Briner, Simon & Finger, Robert, 2012. "Bio-economic modelling of decisions under yield and price risk for suckler cow farms," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122547, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    23. Robert Aidoo & James Osei Mensah & Prosper Wie & Dadson Awunyo-Vitor, 2014. "Prospects of Crop Insurance as a Risk Management Tool among Arable Crop Farmers in Ghana," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(3), pages 341-354.
    24. Luisa Menapace & Gregory Colson & Roberta Raffaelli, 2013. "Risk Aversion, Subjective Beliefs, and Farmer Risk Management Strategies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 384-389.
    25. C. Deser & F. Lehner & K. B. Rodgers & T. Ault & T. L. Delworth & P. N. DiNezio & A. Fiore & C. Frankignoul & J. C. Fyfe & D. E. Horton & J. E. Kay & R. Knutti & N. S. Lovenduski & J. Marotzke & K. A., 2020. "Publisher Correction: Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(8), pages 791-791, August.
    26. Mosnier, C. & Agabriel, J. & Lherm, M. & Reynaud, A., 2009. "A dynamic bio-economic model to simulate optimal adjustments of suckler cow farm management to production and market shocks in France," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 102(1-3), pages 77-88, October.
    27. Holden, Stein & Shiferaw, Bekele, 2004. "Land degradation, drought and food security in a less-favoured area in the Ethiopian highlands: a bio-economic model with market imperfections," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 31-49, January.
    28. Fahad, Shah & Wang, Jianling, 2018. "Farmers’ risk perception, vulnerability, and adaptation to climate change in rural Pakistan," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 301-309.
    29. Ngeleza, Guyslain K. & Owusua, Rebecca & Jimah, Kipo & Kolavalli, Shashidhara, 2011. "Cropping practices and labor requirements in field operations for major crops in Ghana: What needs to be mechanized?," IFPRI discussion papers 1074, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    30. Hansen, James & Hellin, Jon & Rosenstock, Todd & Fisher, Eleanor & Cairns, Jill & Stirling, Clare & Lamanna, Christine & van Etten, Jacob & Rose, Alison & Campbell, Bruce, 2019. "Climate risk management and rural poverty reduction," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 28-46.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Njue, E. & Kirimi, L. & Mathenge, M., 2018. "Uptake of Crop Insurance among Smallholder Farmers: Insights from Maize Producers in Kenya," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277023, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Berger, Thomas & Schreinemachers, Pepijn, 2006. "From Bioeconomic Farm Models to Multi-Agent Systems: Challenges for Parameterization and Validation," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25577, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Berger, Thomas & Schreinemachers, Pepijn & Woelcke, Johannes, 2006. "Multi-agent simulation for the targeting of development policies in less-favored areas," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 28-43, April.
    4. S. Nedumaran & Beleke Shiferaw & M. Bantilan & K. Palanisami & Suhas Wani, 2014. "Bioeconomic modeling of farm household decisions for ex-ante impact assessment of integrated watershed development programs in semi-arid India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 257-286, April.
    5. Mbonane, Nobuhle Duduzile, 2018. "An analysis of farmers’ preferences for crop insurance: a case of maize farmers in Swaziland," Research Theses 334771, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    6. Upadhyay, T.P. & Solberg, Birger & Sankhayan, Prem L., 2006. "Use of models to analyse land-use changes, forest/soil degradation and carbon sequestration with special reference to Himalayan region: A review and analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 349-371, December.
    7. Barbier, Bruno & Bergeron, Gilles, 2001. "Natural resource management in the hillsides of Honduras: bioeconomic modeling at the micro-watershed level," Research reports 123, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Islam, Md. Mofakkarul & Sarker, Md. Asaduzzaman & Al Mamun, Md. Abdullah & Mamun-ur-Rashid, Md. & Roy, Debashis, 2021. "Stepping Up versus Stepping Out: On the outcomes and drivers of two alternative climate change adaptation strategies of smallholders," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    9. Ellis, Emmanuella, 2017. "Factors Affecting Risk Management Strategies To Climate Change Effects In Ghana," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 5(1), January.
    10. Ponsioen, Thomas C. & Hengsdijk, Huib & Wolf, Joost & van Ittersum, Martin K. & Rotter, Reimund P. & Son, Tran Thuc & Laborte, Alice G., 2006. "TechnoGIN, a tool for exploring and evaluating resource use efficiency of cropping systems in East and Southeast Asia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 80-100, January.
    11. Shijie Zhou & Ping Huang & Lin Wang & Kaiming Hu & Gang Huang & Peng Hu, 2024. "Robust changes in global subtropical circulation under greenhouse warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    12. Xuezhi Tan & Xinxin Wu & Zeqin Huang & Jianyu Fu & Xuejin Tan & Simin Deng & Yaxin Liu & Thian Yew Gan & Bingjun Liu, 2023. "Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Seebens, Holger, 2008. "One size fits all? Female Headed Households, Income Risk, and Access to Resources," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43609, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Lei Huang & Axel Timmermann & Sun-Seon Lee & Keith B. Rodgers & Ryohei Yamaguchi & Eui-Seok Chung, 2022. "Emerging unprecedented lake ice loss in climate change projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    15. Vikki Thompson & Dann Mitchell & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Matthew Collins & Nicholas J. Leach & Julia M. Slingo, 2023. "The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    16. Jisesh Sethunadh & F. W. Letson & R. J. Barthelmie & S. C. Pryor, 2023. "Assessing the impact of global warming on windstorms in the northeastern United States using the pseudo-global-warming method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2807-2834, July.
    17. Komarek, Adam M. & De Pinto, Alessandro & Smith, Vincent H., 2020. "A review of types of risks in agriculture: What we know and what we need to know," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    18. Pant, Laxmi Prasad, 2016. "Paradox of mainstreaming agroecology for regional and rural food security in developing countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 305-316.
    19. Alary, V. & Nefzaoui, A. & Jemaa, M. Ben, 2007. "Promoting the adoption of natural resource management technology in arid and semi-arid areas: Modelling the impact of spineless cactus in alley cropping in Central Tunisia," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 573-585, May.
    20. Komarek, Adam M. & Drogue, Sophie & Chenoune, Roza & Hawkins, James & Msangi, Siwa & Belhouchette, Hatem & Flichman, Guillermo, 2017. "Agricultural household effects of fertilizer price changes for smallholder farmers in central Malawi," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 168-178.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2023:i:9:p:7386-:d:1136076. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.