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What role can crop models play in supporting climate change adaptation decisions to enhance food security in Sub-Saharan Africa?

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  • Webber, Heidi
  • Gaiser, Thomas
  • Ewert, Frank

Abstract

In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) efforts to achieve food security are challenged by poverty, low soil fertility, unequal global trade relationships, population growth, weak institutions and infrastructure, and future climate changes and variability. Crop models are the primary tools available to assess the impacts of climate change and other drivers on crop productivity, a key aspect of food security. This review examines their role and suitability for informing climate change adaptation decisions in the SSA context. Perception of climate change is rarely the only factor leading to changed farming practices, with labor availability, recent extreme climatic events (floods or droughts) and access to formal credit, constituting the main factors farmers respond to. Further, farmers’ socio-economic status constrains the adaptations they make in response to these drivers. Many crop modeling studies reviewed investigating climate change adaptation currently do not capture many of these drivers, adaptations nor constraints. However, a number of areas were identified where crop models could aid in adaptations decision-making. For instance, crop models can: test which changes farmers are making are most robust to future climate scenarios; be used as tools for experimentation in farmer organizations to build farmer capacity, minimize risk and empower farmers; be linked to economic, farm systems or livestock models to widen the scope of potential impacts, adaptations and farmer constraints considered, and to probe the interactions of cropping systems with other systems; and evaluate various indicators of resilience. Finally it is suggested that one of the greatest benefits of linking crop models across disciplines and in integrated assessment frameworks may be providing a platform to bring specialists and stakeholders from diverse backgrounds together to assess climate change adaptation options to enhance food security in SSA.

Suggested Citation

  • Webber, Heidi & Gaiser, Thomas & Ewert, Frank, 2014. "What role can crop models play in supporting climate change adaptation decisions to enhance food security in Sub-Saharan Africa?," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 161-177.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:127:y:2014:i:c:p:161-177
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2013.12.006
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    9. Zimmermann, Andrea & Webber, Heidi & Zhao, Gang & Ewert, Frank & Kros, Johannes & Wolf, Joost & Britz, Wolfgang & de Vries, Wim, 2017. "Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 81-92.
    10. Dennis Junior Choruma & Frank Chukwuzuoke Akamagwuna & Nelson Oghenekaro Odume, 2022. "Simulating the Impacts of Climate Change on Maize Yields Using EPIC: A Case Study in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, May.
    11. Bodin, P. & Olin, S. & Pugh, T.A.M. & Arneth, A., 2016. "Accounting for interannual variability in agricultural intensification: The potential of crop selection in Sub-Saharan Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 159-168.
    12. Edith Afandi Kichamu & John Safari Ziro & Gomathy Palaniappan & Helen Ross, 2018. "Climate change perceptions and adaptations of smallholder farmers in Eastern Kenya," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(6), pages 2663-2680, December.
    13. Abiodun A. Ogundeji, 2022. "Adaptation to Climate Change and Impact on Smallholder Farmers’ Food Security in South Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-16, April.
    14. Silberg, Timothy R. & Renner, Karen & Schmitt Olabisi, Laura & Richardson, Robert B. & Chimonyo, Vimbayi Grace Patrova & Uriona-Maldonado, Mauricio & Basso, Bruno B. & Mwale, Cyprian, 2021. "Modeling smallholder agricultural systems to manage Striga in the semi-arid tropics," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    15. Valentina Mereu & Gianluca Carboni & Andrea Gallo & Raffaello Cervigni & Donatella Spano, 2015. "Impact of climate change on staple food crop production in Nigeria," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 321-336, September.
    16. Ogunlesi, Ayodeji & Bokana, Koye & Okoye, Chidozie & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2018. "Agricultural Productivity and Food Supply Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa: LSDV and SYS-GMM Approach," MPRA Paper 90204, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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