IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v15y2022i1p399-d1015847.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electric Car Market Analysis Using Open Data: Sales, Volatility Assessment, and Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitry V. Pelegov

    (Institute of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Ural Federal University, 19 Mira Street, 620002 Ekaterinburg, Russia)

  • Jean-Jacques Chanaron

    (Grenoble Ecole de Management, 12 rue Pierre Sémard, 38000 Grenoble, France)

Abstract

In the context of the growing popularity of electric cars, it is important to track the sustainability of this emerging industry. This work presents the results of electric vehicle sales up to and including 2021, proposes volatility assessment and short-term forecasting using normalized monthly sales analysis, and discusses why quantitative long-term forecasting is impossible. In cases where authorities and regulators are the main driving forces of change, the electric car market does not need forecasting, but instead requires proper goal setting and timely published market data with open access.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitry V. Pelegov & Jean-Jacques Chanaron, 2022. "Electric Car Market Analysis Using Open Data: Sales, Volatility Assessment, and Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2022:i:1:p:399-:d:1015847
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/1/399/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/1/399/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Howell, Sabrina & Lee, Henry & Heal, Adam, 2014. "Leapfrogging or Stalling Out? Electric Vehicles in China," Working Paper Series rwp14-035, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Sperling, Dan & Collantes, Gustavo O, 2008. "The origin of California’s zero emission vehicle mandate," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt9pd8m8gs, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    3. Amela Ajanovic, 2015. "The future of electric vehicles: prospects and impediments," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(6), pages 521-536, November.
    4. Gnann, Till & Stephens, Thomas S. & Lin, Zhenhong & Plötz, Patrick & Liu, Changzheng & Brokate, Jens, 2018. "What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 158-164.
    5. Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan & Guha, Pritha & Chakraborty, Abhishek, 2022. "Comparative assessment and selection of electric vehicle diffusion models: A global outlook," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    6. Weiss, Martin & Patel, Martin K. & Junginger, Martin & Perujo, Adolfo & Bonnel, Pierre & van Grootveld, Geert, 2012. "On the electrification of road transport - Learning rates and price forecasts for hybrid-electric and battery-electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 374-393.
    7. Ballinger, Benjamin & Stringer, Martin & Schmeda-Lopez, Diego R. & Kefford, Benjamin & Parkinson, Brett & Greig, Chris & Smart, Simon, 2019. "The vulnerability of electric vehicle deployment to critical mineral supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    8. Wang, Ning & Tang, Linhao & Zhang, Wenjian & Guo, Jiahui, 2019. "How to face the challenges caused by the abolishment of subsidies for electric vehicles in China?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 359-372.
    9. Collantes, Gustavo & Sperling, Daniel, 2008. "The origin of California's zero emission vehicle mandate," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(10), pages 1302-1313, December.
    10. Shanjun Li & Xianglei Zhu & Yiding Ma & Fan Zhang & Hui Zhou, 2022. "The Role of Government in the Market for Electric Vehicles: Evidence from China," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 450-485, March.
    11. Jean-Jacques Chanaron, 1998. "Automobiles: a static technology, a ""wait-and-see"" industry ?," Grenoble Ecole de Management (Post-Print) halshs-00143994, HAL.
    12. Hanjiro Ambrose & Alissa Kendall, 2020. "Understanding the future of lithium: Part 1, resource model," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(1), pages 80-89, February.
    13. Peng Yu & Jian Zhang & Defang Yang & Xin Lin & Tianying Xu, 2019. "The Evolution of China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry from the Perspective of a Technology–Market–Policy Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, March.
    14. Jean-Jacques Chanaron & Julius Teske, 2007. "Hybrid vehicles: a temporary step," Grenoble Ecole de Management (Post-Print) halshs-00207392, HAL.
    15. Jean-Jacques Chanaron, 1998. "Automobiles: a static technology, a ""wait-and-see"" industry ?," Post-Print halshs-00143994, HAL.
    16. Chunyu Zhao & Beile Zhang & Yuanming Zheng & Shunyuan Huang & Tongtong Yan & Xiufang Liu, 2020. "Hybrid Battery Thermal Management System in Electrical Vehicles: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-18, November.
    17. Minfeng Wu & Wen Chen, 2022. "Forecast of Electric Vehicle Sales in the World and China Based on PCA-GRNN," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, February.
    18. Jean-Jacques Chanaron & Julius Teske, 2007. "Hybrid vehicles: a temporary step," International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(4), pages 268-288.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zakerinia, Saleh, 2018. "Understanding the Role of Transportation in Meeting California’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Target: A Focus on Technology Forcing Policies, Interactions with the Electric Sector and Mitigation," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt0r69m651, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. Sykes, Maxwell & Axsen, Jonn, 2017. "No free ride to zero-emissions: Simulating a region's need to implement its own zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate to achieve 2050 GHG targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 447-460.
    3. Aileen Lam & Soocheol Lee & Jean-François Mercure & Yongsung Cho & Chun-Hsu Lin & Hector Pollitt & Unnada Chewpreecha & Sophie Billington, 2018. "Policies and Predictions for a Low-Carbon Transition by 2050 in Passenger Vehicles in East Asia: Based on an Analysis Using the E3ME-FTT Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-32, May.
    4. Kulmer, Veronika & Seebauer, Sebastian & Hinterreither, Helene & Kortschak, Dominik & Theurl, Michaela C. & Haas, Willi, 2022. "Transforming the s-shape: Identifying and explaining turning points in market diffusion curves of low-carbon technologies in Austria," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1).
    5. Bhardwaj, Chandan & Axsen, Jonn & Kern, Florian & McCollum, David, 2020. "Why have multiple climate policies for light-duty vehicles? Policy mix rationales, interactions and research gaps," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 309-326.
    6. Iogansen, Xiatian & Wang, Kailai & Bunch, David & Matson, Grant & Circella, Giovanni, 2023. "Deciphering the factors associated with adoption of alternative fuel vehicles in California: An investigation of latent attitudes, socio-demographics, and neighborhood effects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    7. Jean-Jacques Chanaron & Julius Teske, 2007. "Hybrid vehicles: a temporary step," Post-Print halshs-00207392, HAL.
    8. J. H. Wesseling & E. M. M. I. Niesten & J. Faber & M. P. Hekkert, 2015. "Business Strategies of Incumbents in the Market for Electric Vehicles: Opportunities and Incentives for Sustainable Innovation," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 518-531, September.
    9. Wen, W. & Yang, S. & Zhou, P. & Gao, S.Z., 2021. "Impacts of COVID-19 on the electric vehicle industry: Evidence from China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Li, Xiaotao & Yuan, Xiaodong, 2022. "Tracing the technology transfer of battery electric vehicles in China: A patent citation organization network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    11. Jack N. Barkenbus, 2020. "Prospects for Electric Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-13, July.
    12. Jenn, Alan & Azevedo, Inês L. & Michalek, Jeremy J., 2019. "Alternative-fuel-vehicle policy interactions increase U.S. greenhouse gas emissions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 396-407.
    13. Kantapich Preedakorn & David Butler & Jörn Mehnen, 2023. "Challenges for the Adoption of Electric Vehicles in Thailand: Potential Impacts, Barriers, and Public Policy Recommendations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-21, June.
    14. Bakker, Sjoerd, 2010. "The car industry and the blow-out of the hydrogen hype," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6540-6544, November.
    15. G Baltas & C Saridakis, 2010. "Measuring brand equity in the car market: a hedonic price analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(2), pages 284-293, February.
    16. Gu, Gaoxiang & Wang, Zheng, 2018. "China’s carbon emissions abatement under industrial restructuring by investment restriction," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 133-144.
    17. Collantes, Gustavo & Melaina, Marc W., 2011. "The co-evolution of alternative fuel infrastructure and vehicles: A study of the experience of Argentina with compressed natural gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 664-675, February.
    18. Yeh, Sonia & Burtraw, Dallas & Sterner, Thomas & Greene, David, 2021. "Tradable performance standards in the transportation sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    19. Collantes, Gustavo & Kessler, Jeff & Cahill, Eric, 2017. "Structural Determinants of Electric Vehicle Market Growth," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt8d15487b, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    20. Na Zhou & Qiaosheng Wu & Xiangping Hu, 2020. "Research on the Policy Evolution of China’s New Energy Vehicles Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:15:y:2022:i:1:p:399-:d:1015847. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.