IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i6p2370-d333885.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Microsimulation of Residential Activity for Alternative Urban Development Scenarios: A Case Study on Brussels and Flemish Brabant

Author

Listed:
  • Frederik Priem

    (Cartography and GIS Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Philip Stessens

    (Building, Architecture and Town Planning, Université Libre de Bruxelles, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Frank Canters

    (Cartography and GIS Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

Abstract

The historically rooted suburbanization of Flanders and the Brussels Capital Region (BCR) in Belgium has resulted in severe urban sprawl, traffic congestion, natural land degradation and many related problems. Recent policy proposals put forward by the two regions aim for more compact urban development in well-serviced areas. Yet, it is unclear how these proposed policies may impact residential dynamics over the coming decades. To address this issue, we developed a Residential Microsimulation (RM) framework that spatially refines coarse-scale demographic projections at the district level to the level of census tracts. The validation of simulated changes from 2001 to 2011 reveals that the proposed framework succeeds in modelling historic trends and clearly outperforms a random model. To support simulation from 2011 to 2040, two alternative urban development scenarios are defined. The Business As Usual (BAU) scenario essentially represents a continuation of urban sprawl development, whereas the Sustainable Development (SUS) scenario strives for higher-density development around strategic well-serviced nodes in line with proposed policies. This study demonstrates how residential microsimulation supported by scenario analysis can play a constructive role in urban policy design and evaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederik Priem & Philip Stessens & Frank Canters, 2020. "Microsimulation of Residential Activity for Alternative Urban Development Scenarios: A Case Study on Brussels and Flemish Brabant," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-28, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:6:p:2370-:d:333885
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/6/2370/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/6/2370/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McFadden, Daniel L., 1984. "Econometric analysis of qualitative response models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1395-1457, Elsevier.
    2. Terance J. Rephann & Einar Holm, 2004. "Economic-Demographic Effects of Immigration: Results from a Dynamic Spatial Microsimulation Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 27(4), pages 379-410, October.
    3. Tirumalachetty, Sumala & Kockelman, Kara M. & Nichols, Brice G., 2013. "Forecasting greenhouse gas emissions from urban regions: microsimulation of land use and transport patterns in Austin, Texas," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 220-229.
    4. Panayotis Christidis & Juan Nicolás Ibanez Rivas, 2012. "Measuring road congestion," JRC Research Reports JRC69961, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Christiadi & Brian Cushing, 2007. "Conditional Logit, IIA, and Alternatives for Estimating Models of Interstate Migration," Working Papers Working Paper 2007-04, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    6. António Brandão Moniz, 2006. "Scenario-Building Methods as a Tool for Policy Analysis," Springer Books, in: Benoît Rihoux & Heike Grimm (ed.), Innovative Comparative Methods for Policy Analysis, chapter 0, pages 185-209, Springer.
    7. Joan Walker & Jieping Li, 2007. "Latent lifestyle preferences and household location decisions," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 77-101, April.
    8. Brathwaite, Timothy & Walker, Joan L., 2018. "Asymmetric, closed-form, finite-parameter models of multinomial choice," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 78-112.
    9. Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2013. "A survey of dynamic microsimulation models: uses, model structure and methodology," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 6(2), pages 3-55.
    10. Savina Princen, 2017. "Taxation of Company Cars in Belgium – Room to Reduce their Favourable Treatment," European Economy - Economic Briefs 026, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Michael Wegener, 2011. "From Macro to Micro—How Much Micro is too Much?," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 161-177.
    12. Verhetsel, Ann & Thomas, Isabelle & Beelen, Marjan, 2010. "Commuting in Belgian metropolitan areas: The power of the Alonso-Muth model," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 2(3), pages 109-131.
    13. Brian Lee & Paul Waddell, 2010. "Residential mobility and location choice: a nested logit model with sampling of alternatives," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 587-601, July.
    14. Martínez, L. Miguel & Viegas, José Manuel, 2013. "A new approach to modelling distance-decay functions for accessibility assessment in transport studies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 87-96.
    15. Qingxu Huang & Dawn C Parker & Tatiana Filatova & Shipeng Sun, 2014. "A Review of Urban Residential Choice Models Using Agent-Based Modeling," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 41(4), pages 661-689, August.
    16. Robert Tanton, 2014. "A Review of Spatial Microsimulation Methods," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(1), pages 4-25.
    17. Wim Kellens & Wouter Vanneuville & Els Verfaillie & Ellen Meire & Pieter Deckers & Philippe Maeyer, 2013. "Flood Risk Management in Flanders: Past Developments and Future Challenges," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3585-3606, August.
    18. Schirmer, Patrick & van Eggermond, Michael & Axhausen, Kay, 2014. "The role of location in residential location choice models: a review of literature," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 7(2), pages 3-21.
    19. Robert Tanton & Yogi Vidyattama & Binod Nepal & Justine McNamara, 2011. "Small area estimation using a reweighting algorithm," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 174(4), pages 931-951, October.
    20. Edwards, Kimberley L. & Clarke, Graham P., 2009. "The design and validation of a spatial microsimulation model of obesogenic environments for children in Leeds, UK: SimObesity," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 1127-1134, October.
    21. Stassen, Stien & Collier, Pieter & Torfs, Rudi, 2008. "The Environmental Burden of Disease due to transportation noise in Flanders (Belgium) 2004," Working Papers 2008/04, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
    22. Bruno Meeus & Pascal De Decker, 2015. "Staying Put! A Housing Pathway Analysis of Residential Stability in Belgium," Housing Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(7), pages 1116-1134, October.
    23. Paul Waddell, 2010. "Modeling Residential Location in UrbanSim," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Francesca Pagliara & John Preston & David Simmonds (ed.), Residential Location Choice, pages 165-180, Springer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frederik Priem & Philip Stessens & Frank Canters, 2020. "Microsimulation of residential activity for alternative urban development scenarios: A case study on brussels and flemish brabant," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/305003, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Cathal O'Donoghue & Karyn Morrissey & John Lennon, 2014. "Spatial Microsimulation Modelling: a Review of Applications and Methodological Choices," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(1), pages 26-75.
    3. Jia Guo & Tao Feng & Harry J. P. Timmermans, 2020. "Modeling co-dependent choice of workplace, residence and commuting mode using an error component mixed logit model," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 911-933, April.
    4. Abdurrahman B. Aydemir & Erkan Duman, 2021. "Migrant Networks and Destination Choice: Evidence from Moves across Turkish Provinces," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2109, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2014. "Labour Supply Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 167-221, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    6. Sebastian Dräger & Johannes Kopp & Ralf Münnich & Simon Schmaus, 2022. "Die zukünftige Entwicklung der Grundschulversorgung im Kontext ausgewählter Wanderungsszenarien [The future development of primary school demand in the context of selected migration scenarios]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 16(1), pages 51-77, March.
    7. Zhongming Lu & Frank Southworth & John Crittenden & Ellen Dunhum-Jones, 2015. "Market potential for smart growth neighbourhoods in the USA: A latent class analysis on heterogeneous preference and choice," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(16), pages 3001-3017, December.
    8. Jinjing Li & Yogi Vidyattama, 2019. "Projecting spatial population and labour force growth in Australian districts," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 205-232, September.
    9. Robert Tanton, 2018. "Spatial Microsimulation: Developments and Potential Future Directions," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 11(1), pages 143-161.
    10. Robert Tanton & Paul Williamson & Ann Harding, 2014. "Comparing Two Methods of Reweighting a Survey File to Small Area Data," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(1), pages 76-99.
    11. Haque, Md Bashirul & Choudhury, Charisma & Hess, Stephane, 2020. "Understanding differences in residential location preferences between ownership and renting: A case study of London," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Tinessa, Fiore & Marzano, Vittorio & Papola, Andrea, 2020. "Mixing distributions of tastes with a Combination of Nested Logit (CoNL) kernel: Formulation and performance analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1-23.
    13. Jiri Horak & Jan Tesla & David Fojtik & Vit Vozenilek, 2019. "Modelling Public Transport Accessibility with Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulations: A Case Study of Ostrava," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-25, December.
    14. Jan Pablo Burgard & Joscha Krause & Simon Schmaus, 2019. "Estimation of Regional Transition Probabilities for Spatial Dynamic Microsimulations from Survey Data Lacking in Regional Detail," Research Papers in Economics 2019-12, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    15. Schirmer, Patrick & van Eggermond, Michael & Axhausen, Kay, 2014. "The role of location in residential location choice models: a review of literature," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 7(2), pages 3-21.
    16. Houshmand Masoumi & Atif Bilal Aslam & Irfan Ahmad Rana & Muhammad Ahmad & Nida Naeem, 2022. "Relationship of Residential Location Choice with Commute Travels and Socioeconomics in the Small Towns of South Asia: The Case of Hafizabad, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-15, March.
    17. Dianna M. Smith & Alison Heppenstall & Monique Campbell, 2021. "Estimating Health over Space and Time: A Review of Spatial Microsimulation Applied to Public Health," J, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-11, June.
    18. Tomás Cox & Ricardo Hurtubia, 2022. "Compact development and preferences for social mixing in location choices: Results from revealed preferences in Santiago, Chile," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 246-269, January.
    19. Figini, Paolo & Vici, Laura, 2012. "Off-season tourists and the cultural offer of a mass-tourism destination: The case of Rimini," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 825-839.
    20. Huang, Yu & Parker, Dawn & Minaker, Leia, 2021. "Identifying latent demand for transit-oriented development neighbourhoods: Evidence from a mid-sized urban area in Canada," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:6:p:2370-:d:333885. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.