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Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

Author

Listed:
  • Ruci Wang

    (Graduate School of Life and Environmental Science, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan)

  • Ahmed Derdouri

    (Graduate School of Life and Environmental Science, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan)

  • Yuji Murayama

    (Faculty of Life and Environmental Science, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan)

Abstract

Simulating future land use/cover changes is of great importance for urban planners and decision-makers, especially in metropolitan areas, to maintain a sustainable environment. This study examines the changes in land use/cover in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) from 2007 to 2017 as a first step in using supervised classification. Second, based on the map results, we predicted the expected patterns of change in 2027 and 2037 by employing a hybrid model composed of cellular automata and the Markov model. The next step was to decide the model inputs consisting of the modeling variables affecting the distribution of land use/cover in the study area, for instance distance to central business district (CBD) and distance to railways, in addition to the classified maps of 2007 and 2017. Finally, we considered three scenarios for simulating land use/cover changes: spontaneous, sub-region development, and green space improvement. Simulation results show varied patterns of change according to the different scenarios. The sub-region development scenario is the most promising because it balances between urban areas, resources, and green spaces. This study provides significant insight for planners about change trends in the TMA and future challenges that might be encountered to maintain a sustainable region.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruci Wang & Ahmed Derdouri & Yuji Murayama, 2018. "Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:6:p:2056-:d:152998
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    3. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
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    6. Yongjiu Feng & Jiafeng Wang & Xiaohua Tong & Yang Liu & Zhenkun Lei & Chen Gao & Shurui Chen, 2018. "The Effect of Observation Scale on Urban Growth Simulation Using Particle Swarm Optimization-Based CA Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-20, November.
    7. Yuta Kanno & Takayuki Shiohama, 2022. "Land price polarization and dispersion in Tokyo: a spatial model approach," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 807-835, June.
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    9. Honglei Jiang & Xia Xu & Mengxi Guan & Lingfei Wang & Yongmei Huang & Yinghui Liu, 2019. "Simulation of Spatiotemporal Land Use Changes for Integrated Model of Socioeconomic and Ecological Processes in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-18, July.
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    11. Iman Rousta & Md Omar Sarif & Rajan Dev Gupta & Haraldur Olafsson & Manjula Ranagalage & Yuji Murayama & Hao Zhang & Terence Darlington Mushore, 2018. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use/Land Cover and Its Effects on Surface Urban Heat Island Using Landsat Data: A Case Study of Metropolitan City Tehran (1988–2018)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-25, November.
    12. Sai Hu & Longqian Chen & Long Li & Ting Zhang & Lina Yuan & Liang Cheng & Jia Wang & Mingxin Wen, 2020. "Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Dynamics under Ecological Constraints in Anhui Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-21, June.

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