IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v70y2018icp128-137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Population stress: A spatiotemporal analysis of population change and land development at the county level in the contiguous United States, 2001–2011

Author

Listed:
  • Chi, Guangqing
  • Ho, Hung Chak

Abstract

The past century has witnessed rapidly increasing population-land conflicts due to exponential population growth and its many consequences. Although the measures of population-land conflicts are many, there lacks a model that appropriately considers both the social and physical contexts of population-land conflicts. In this study we introduce the concept of population stress, which identifies areas with populations growing faster than the lands available for sustainable development. Specifically, population stress areas are identified by comparing population growth and land development as measured by land developability in the contiguous United States from 2001 to 2011. Our approach is based on a combination of spatial multicriteria analysis, zonal statistics, and spatiotemporal modelling. We found that the population growth of a county is associated with the decrease of land developability, along with the spatial influences of surrounding counties. The Midwest and the traditional “Deep South” counties would have less population stress with future land development, whereas the Southeast Coast, Washington State, Northern Texas, and the Southwest would face more stress due to population growth that is faster than the loss of suitable lands for development. The factors contributing to population stress may differ from place to place. Our "population stress" concept is useful and innovative for understanding population stress due to land development and can be applied to other regions as well as global research. It can act as a basis towards developing coherent sustainable land use policies. Coordination among local governments and across different levels of governments in the twenty-first century is a must for effective land use planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Chi, Guangqing & Ho, Hung Chak, 2018. "Population stress: A spatiotemporal analysis of population change and land development at the county level in the contiguous United States, 2001–2011," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 128-137.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:128-137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.10.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837717303721
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.10.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guangqing Chi, 2009. "Can knowledge improve population forecasts at subcounty levels?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 46(2), pages 405-427, May.
    2. Jessica Ludy & G. Kondolf, 2012. "Flood risk perception in lands “protected” by 100-year levees," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 829-842, March.
    3. Guangqing Chi & Jun Zhu, 2008. "Spatial Regression Models for Demographic Analysis," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 27(1), pages 17-42, February.
    4. Matthew Gandy, 2004. "Rethinking urban metabolism: water, space and the modern city," City, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 363-379, December.
    5. Richelle L. Winkler & Kenneth M. Johnson, 2016. "Moving Toward Integration? Effects of Migration on Ethnoracial Segregation Across the Rural-Urban Continuum," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(4), pages 1027-1049, August.
    6. de Groot, Rudolf & Brander, Luke & van der Ploeg, Sander & Costanza, Robert & Bernard, Florence & Braat, Leon & Christie, Mike & Crossman, Neville & Ghermandi, Andrea & Hein, Lars & Hussain, Salman & , 2012. "Global estimates of the value of ecosystems and their services in monetary units," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 50-61.
    7. Guangqing Chi & David Marcouiller, 2013. "Natural amenities and their effects on migration along the urban–rural continuum," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 50(3), pages 861-883, June.
    8. Hillary Angelo & David Wachsmuth, 2015. "Urbanizing Urban Political Ecology: A Critique of Methodological Cityism," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 16-27, January.
    9. Guangqing Chi & Stephen J. Ventura, 2011. "An Integrated Framework of Population Change: Influential Factors, Spatial Dynamics, and Temporal Variation," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 549-570, December.
    10. Grout, Cyrus A. & Jaeger, William K. & Plantinga, Andrew J., 2011. "Land-use regulations and property values in Portland, Oregon: A regression discontinuity design approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 98-107, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ruci Wang & Ahmed Derdouri & Yuji Murayama, 2018. "Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Bishal Bhakta Kasu & Guangqing Chi, 2018. "The Evolving and Complementary Impacts of Transportation Infrastructures on Population and Employment Change in the United States, 1970–2010," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(6), pages 1003-1029, December.
    3. Luwen Liu & Xingrong Chen & Wanxu Chen & Xinyue Ye, 2020. "Identifying the Impact of Landscape Pattern on Ecosystem Services in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-26, July.
    4. Xu, Feng & Chi, Guangqing & Zhang, Zhexi & Yang, Jianxin, 2023. "How does quality regional growth affect land resources dependence in China? Evidence based on spatial Durbin panel models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Chen, Wanxu & Chi, Guangqing, 2022. "Urbanization and ecosystem services: The multi-scale spatial spillover effects and spatial variations," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    6. Feng Xu & Guangqing Chi & Yongheng Rao & Jianjun Zhang, 2022. "Editorial for Special Issue “Land Use Change and Anthropogenic Disturbances: Relationships, Interactions, and Management”," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-6, September.
    7. Tong, Qingmeng & Qiu, Feng, 2020. "Population growth and land development: Investigating the bi-directional interactions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    8. Chen, Wanxu & Chi, Guangqing & Li, Jiangfeng, 2020. "The spatial aspect of ecosystem services balance and its determinants," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Jesse M. Keenan & Jacob T. Bradt, 2020. "Underwaterwriting: from theory to empiricism in regional mortgage markets in the U.S," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2043-2067, October.
    10. Guanglong Dong & Wenxin Zhang & Xinliang Xu & Kun Jia, 2021. "Multi-Dimensional Feature Recognition and Policy Implications of Rural Human–Land Relationships in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, October.
    11. Wenwen Xu & Chunrui Song & Dongqi Sun & Baochu Yu, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Differentiation of the School-Age Migrant Population in Liaoning Province, China, and Its Driving Factors," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-13, October.
    12. Smiley, Kevin T. & Hakkenberg, Christopher R., 2020. "Race and affluence shape spatio-temporal urbanization trends in Greater Houston, 1997 to 2016," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    13. Ning Xu & Wanxu Chen & Sipei Pan & Jiale Liang & Jiaojiao Bian, 2022. "Evolution Characteristics and Formation Mechanism of Production-Living-Ecological Space in China: Perspective of Main Function Zones," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-19, August.
    14. Yifang Wang & Linlin Cheng & Yang Zheng, 2022. "Rural Effectiveness Evaluation: A New Way of Assessing Village Development Status," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-26, July.
    15. Shirzad, Hossein & Barati, Ali Akbar & Ehteshammajd, Shaghayegh & Goli, Imaneh & Siamian, Narges & Moghaddam, Saghi Movahhed & Pour, Mahdad & Tan, Rong & Janečková, Kristina & Sklenička, Petr & Azadi,, 2022. "Agricultural land tenure system in Iran: An overview," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    16. Xu, Feng & Wang, Zhanqi & Chi, Guangqing & Zhang, Zhexi, 2020. "The impacts of population and agglomeration development on land use intensity: New evidence behind urbanization in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Fengjian Ge & Wanxu Chen & Yuanyuan Zeng & Jiangfeng Li, 2021. "The Nexus between Urbanization and Traffic Accessibility in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(7), pages 1-17, April.
    18. Nan Xia & Manchun Li & Liang Cheng, 2021. "Mapping Impacts of Human Activities from Nighttime Light on Vegetation Cover Changes in Southeast Asia," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wanxu Chen & Guangqing Chi & Jiangfeng Li, 2020. "Ecosystem Services and Their Driving Forces in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Urban Agglomerations, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-19, May.
    2. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    3. Chihsin Chiu, 2020. "Theorizing Public Participation and Local Governance in Urban Resilience: Reflections on the “Provincializing Urban Political Ecology” Thesis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Daniel Liviano & Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod, 2012. "Spatial Exploration of Age Distribution in Catalan Municipalities," ERSA conference papers ersa12p81, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Jonathan Silver, 2015. "Disrupted Infrastructures: An Urban Political Ecology of Interrupted Electricity in Accra," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 984-1003, September.
    6. Josep-Maria Arauzo-Carod & Daniel Liviano-Solís, 2012. "Migration Determinants at a Local Level," ERSA conference papers ersa12p500, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Creighton Connolly & Roger Keil & S. Harris Ali, 2021. "Extended urbanisation and the spatialities of infectious disease: Demographic change, infrastructure and governance," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(2), pages 245-263, February.
    8. Bishal Bhakta Kasu & Guangqing Chi, 2018. "The Evolving and Complementary Impacts of Transportation Infrastructures on Population and Employment Change in the United States, 1970–2010," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(6), pages 1003-1029, December.
    9. Pilar Lopez-Llompart & G. Mathias Kondolf, 2016. "Encroachments in floodways of the Mississippi River and Tributaries Project," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 513-542, March.
    10. Chaikaew, Pasicha & Hodges, Alan W. & Grunwald, Sabine, 2017. "Estimating the value of ecosystem services in a mixed-use watershed: A choice experiment approach," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 228-237.
    11. Qu, Yang & Hooper, Tara & Austen, Melanie C. & Papathanasopoulou, Eleni & Huang, Junling & Yan, Xiaoyu, 2023. "Development of a computable general equilibrium model based on integrated macroeconomic framework for ocean multi-use between offshore wind farms and fishing activities in Scotland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    12. Liu, Duan & Tang, Runcheng & Xie, Jun & Tian, Jingjing & Shi, Rui & Zhang, Kai, 2020. "Valuation of ecosystem services of rice–fish coculture systems in Ruyuan County, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    13. Pushpa Arabindoo, 2020. "Renewable energy, sustainability paradox and the post-urban question," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(11), pages 2300-2320, August.
    14. Pan, Ying & Wu, Junxi & Zhang, Yanjie & Zhang, Xianzhou & Yu, Chengqun, 2021. "Simultaneous enhancement of ecosystem services and poverty reduction through adjustments to subsidy policies relating to grassland use in Tibet, China," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    15. Berta Morata & Chiara Cavalieri & Agatino Rizzo & Andrea Luciani, 2020. "Territories of Extraction: Mapping Palimpsests of Appropriation," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 5(2), pages 132-151.
    16. Hackbart, Vivian C.S. & de Lima, Guilherme T.N.P. & dos Santos, Rozely F., 2017. "Theory and practice of water ecosystem services valuation: Where are we going?," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 218-227.
    17. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman, 2019. "Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, February.
    18. Yi Yang & Jie Li & Guobin Zhu & Qiangqiang Yuan, 2019. "Spatio–Temporal Relationship and Evolvement of Socioeconomic Factors and PM 2.5 in China During 1998–2016," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-24, March.
    19. Diana Gutiérrez Posada & Fernando Rubiera Morollón & Ana Viñuela, 2018. "Ageing Places in an Ageing Country: The Local Dynamics of the Elderly Population in Spain," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 109(3), pages 332-349, July.
    20. Nibedita Mukherjee & Jean Huge & Farid Dahdouh-Guebas & Nico Koedam, 2014. "Ecosystem service valuations of mangrove ecosystems to inform decision making and future valuation exercises," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/217963, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:128-137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.