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The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China

Author

Listed:
  • Qiang He

    (College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China)

  • Xin Deng

    (College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China)

  • Chuan Li

    (College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China)

  • Zhongcheng Yan

    (College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China)

  • Yanbin Qi

    (College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China)

Abstract

Declining fertility rates pose challenges to global economic, social, cultural and political development. Low fertility rates among rural floating populations are exacerbating these challenges. However, it is not clear whether and to what extent rural population mobility (RPM) has reduced migrants’ willingness to have children. At the same time, rural migration may represent a self-selection behavior (i.e., selection bias), and traditional measurement methods may be insufficient for effectively estimating the quantitative impacts of rural migration. Accordingly, the data from 1734 rural households from 28 provinces in mainland China were collected in the current study, and endogenous switching regression (ESR) models were used to correct the selection bias to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of RPM on fertility intention. The results revealed the following: (1) For rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 19.820%, their willingness to have female children would increase by 48.526%, and their willingness to have male children would drop by 26.711%. (2) For rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would drop by 55.982%, their willingness to have female children would drop by 18.294%, and their willingness to have male children would drop by 55.106%. (3) For eastern rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would decrease by 40.273%. For midwestern rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 24.786%. (4) For eastern rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 11.032%. (5) For midwestern rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would drop by 71.744%. The abovementioned findings can provide research support for other low-fertility countries or regions toward increasing fertility rates and addressing any imbalances in current gender ratios. They can also help to provide realistic strategies for alleviating the global population crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiang He & Xin Deng & Chuan Li & Zhongcheng Yan & Yanbin Qi, 2022. "The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-17, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:12:p:7365-:d:839995
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    Cited by:

    1. Yiqing Xing & Clifford Silver Tarimo & Weicun Ren & Liang Zhang, 2022. "The Impact of Health Insurance Policy on the Fertility Intention of Rural Floating Population in China: Empirical Evidence from Cross-Sectional Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Yan Xiong & Guojin Jiao & Jiaming Zheng & Jian Gao & Yaqing Xue & Buwei Tian & Jingmin Cheng, 2022. "Fertility Intention and Influencing Factors for Having a Second Child among Floating Women of Childbearing Age," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-12, December.

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