IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v18y2021i13p6907-d583391.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Health Status Transition and Medical Expenditure Evaluation of Elderly Population in China

Author

Listed:
  • Lianjie Wang

    (School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Yao Tang

    (School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Farnaz Roshanmehr

    (Shibata Laboratory, School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo 162-8480, Japan
    Kagawa Nutrition University, Saitama 350-0288, Japan)

  • Xiao Bai

    (School of Finance, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China)

  • Farzad Taghizadeh-Hesary

    (Clinical Oncology Department, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran 19857-17443, Iran)

  • Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary

    (Social Science Research Institute, Tokai University, Tokyo 259-1292, Japan)

Abstract

(1) Background: Because of the rapid expansion of the aging population in China, their health status transition and future medical expenditure have received increasing attention. This paper analyzes the health transition of the elderly and how their health transition impacts medical expenditures. At the same time, feasible policy suggestions are provided to respond to the rising medical expenditure and the demand for social care. (2) Methods: The data were obtained from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2015 and analyzed using the Markov model and the Two-Part model (TPM) to forecast the size of the elderly population and their medical expenditures for the period 2020–2060. (3) Results: The study indicates that: (1) for the elderly with a mild disability, the probability of their health improvement is high; in contrast, for the elderly with a moderate or severe disability, their health deterioration is almost certain; (2) the frequency of the diagnosis and treatments of the elderly is closely related to their health status and medical expenditure; alternatively, as the health status deteriorates, the intensity of the elderly individuals’ acceptance of their diagnosis and treatment increases, and so does the medical expense; (3) the population of the elderly with mild and moderate disability demonstrates an inverted “U”-shape, which reaches a peak around 2048, whereas the elderly with severe disability show linear growth, being the target group for health care; (4) with the population increase of the elderly who have severe disability, the medical expenditure increases significantly and poses a huge threat to medical service supply. Conclusions: It is necessary to provide classified and targeted health care according to the health status of the elderly. In addition, improving the level of medical insurance, establishing a mechanism for sharing medical expenditure, and adjusting the basic demographic structure are all important policy choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Lianjie Wang & Yao Tang & Farnaz Roshanmehr & Xiao Bai & Farzad Taghizadeh-Hesary & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2021. "The Health Status Transition and Medical Expenditure Evaluation of Elderly Population in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-14, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:13:p:6907-:d:583391
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/13/6907/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/13/6907/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoyt Bleakley, 2010. "Health, Human Capital, and Development," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 283-310, September.
    2. Reither, Eric N. & Hauser, Robert M. & Yang, Yang, 2009. "Do birth cohorts matter? Age-period-cohort analyses of the obesity epidemic in the United States," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 1439-1448, November.
    3. Joan Costa-Font & Raphael Wittenberg & Concepció Patxot & Adelina Comas-Herrera & Cristiano Gori & Alessandra di Maio & Linda Pickard & Alessandro Pozzi & Heinz Rothgang, 2008. "Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 86(2), pages 303-321, April.
    4. Lu, Shibao & Bai, Xiao & Li, Wei & Wang, Ning, 2019. "Impacts of climate change on water resources and grain production," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 76-84.
    5. Weeks, W.B. & Kazis, L.E. & Shen, Y. & Cong, Z. & Ren, X.S. & Miller, D. & Lee, A. & Perlin, J.B., 2004. "Differences in health-related quality of life in rural and urban veterans," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 94(10), pages 1762-1767.
    6. Noreen Goldman, 1993. "Marriage selection and mortality patterns: Inferences and fallacies," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 30(2), pages 189-208, May.
    7. Zeng Yi & James W. Vaupel & Xiao Zhenyu & Zhang Chunyuan & Liu Yuzhi, 2002. "Sociodemographic and Health Profiles of the Oldest Old In China," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(2), pages 251-273, June.
    8. Henrike Galenkamp & Dorly J. H. Deeg & Martijn Huisman & Antti Hervonen & Arjan W. Braam & Marja Jylhä, 2013. "Is Self-Rated Health Still Sensitive for Changes in Disease and Functioning Among Nonagenarians?," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 68(5), pages 848-858.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mo Hu & Zhiyuan Hao & Yinrui Yin, 2022. "Promoting the Integration of Elderly Healthcare and Elderly Nursing: Evidence from the Chinese Government," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Lianjie Wang & Yao Tang, 2023. "Changing Trends and the Effectiveness of Informal Care Among Rural Elderly Adults in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, October.
    3. Lu Chen & Miaoting Cheng, 2022. "Exploring Chinese Elderly’s Trust in the Healthcare System: Empirical Evidence from a Population-Based Survey in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Shujie Zou & Chiawei Chu & Ning Shen & Jia Ren, 2023. "Healthcare Cost Prediction Based on Hybrid Machine Learning Algorithms," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-13, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Min Gao & Yanyu Li & Shengfa Zhang & Linni Gu & Jinsui Zhang & Zhuojun Li & Weijun Zhang & Donghua Tian, 2017. "Does an Empty Nest Affect Elders’ Health? Empirical Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, April.
    2. Newton, Nicky J. & Ryan, Lindsay H. & King, Rachel T. & Smith, Jacqui, 2014. "Cohort differences in the marriage–health relationship for midlife women," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 64-72.
    3. Fritzell, Sara & Ringbäck Weitoft, Gunilla & Fritzell, Johan & Burström, Bo, 2007. "From macro to micro: The health of Swedish lone mothers during changing economic and social circumstances," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 65(12), pages 2474-2488, December.
    4. Svenja M. Spuling & Oliver Huxhold & Susanne Wurm, 2017. "Predictors of Self-Rated Health: Does Education Play a Role Above and Beyond Age?," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 72(3), pages 415-424.
    5. Atheendar S. Venkataramani & K.R. Shanmugam & Jennifer Prah Ruger, 2010. "Health, Technical Efficiency, And Agricultural Production In Indian Districts," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1-23, December.
    6. Eunha Kim & Hye Young Choi, 2022. "Factors Associated with Poor Self-Rated Health among Older Women Living Alone," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-12, September.
    7. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2016. "What Is the Aggregate Economic Rate of Return to Foreign Aid?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(3), pages 446-474.
    8. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    9. Hui Li & Chengyun Duan & Miao David Chunyu, 2021. "A Study of the Factors Influencing the Residential Preferences of the Elderly in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.
    10. Luo, Ye & Zhang, Zhenmei & Gu, Danan, 2015. "Education and mortality among older adults in China," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 134-142.
    11. Tiantian Ma & Qingbai Hu & Changle Wang & Jungang Lv & Changhong Mi & Rongguang Shi & Xiaoli Wang & Yanying Yang & Wenhao Wu, 2022. "Exploring the Relationship between Ecosystem Services under Different Socio-Economic Driving Degrees," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Ovrum, Arnstein & Gustavsen, Geir Waehler & Rickertsen, Kyrre, 2012. "Health inequalities over the adult life course: the role of lifestyle choices," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125862, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Ryan Masters & Robert Hummer & Daniel Powers & Audrey Beck & Shih-Fan Lin & Brian Finch, 2014. "Long-Term Trends in Adult Mortality for U.S. Blacks and Whites: An Examination of Period- and Cohort-Based Changes," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(6), pages 2047-2073, December.
    14. Zhuohui Yu & Shiping Mao & Qingning Lin, 2022. "Has China’s Carbon Emissions Trading Pilot Policy Improved Agricultural Green Total Factor Productivity?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-21, September.
    15. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2016. "What Is the Aggregate Economic Rate of Return to Foreign Aid?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 30(3), pages 446-474.
    16. Tianjiao Wang & Congbin Guo, 2022. "Inverted U-Shaped Relationship between Physical Activity and Academic Achievement among Chinese Adolescents: On the Mediating Role of Physical and Mental Health," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-13, April.
    17. Espinosa, Javier & Evans, William N., 2008. "Heightened mortality after the death of a spouse: Marriage protection or marriage selection?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1326-1342, September.
    18. Keller, Michael, 2020. "Wasted windfalls: Inefficiencies in health care spending in oil rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    19. Song, Yuegang & Zhang, Bicheng & Wang, Jianhua & Kwek, Keh, 2022. "The impact of climate change on China's agricultural green total factor productivity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    20. Fumagalli, Elena & Mentzakis, Emmanouil & Suhrcke, Marc, 2013. "Do political factors matter in explaining under- and overweight outcomes in developing countries?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 48-56.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:18:y:2021:i:13:p:6907-:d:583391. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.