IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v17y2020i7p2206-d337005.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Early Warning Method for Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on the Logical Curve and Aggregate Warning Index

Author

Listed:
  • Menglu Chen

    (School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China)

  • Juliang Jin

    (School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China)

  • Shaowei Ning

    (School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China
    Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan)

  • Yuliang Zhou

    (School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China)

  • Parmeshwar Udmale

    (Department of Development and Sustainability, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani 12120, Thailand)

Abstract

The sustainable utilization of water resources is a significant factor in the development of the national economy and society. Regional water resources carrying capacity (RWRCC) is an appropriate method for evaluating the balance in such utilization. In this paper, we combined time difference correlation analysis and set pair analysis firstly to identify the early warning sign index (EWSI) for RWRCC, and warning limits were determined using a logical curve. Analytic hierarchy process based on the accelerating genetic algorithm (AGA-AHP) method was used to improve the KLR model by determining weights objectively. We took advantage of the new improved model to build the aggregate warning index (AWI). Then, according to the corresponding relationship between EWSI and AWI, the early warning system for regional water resources carrying capacity (EWS-RWRCC) was established, and a case study was carried out in Anhui Province. The results showed there are eight effective EWSI obtained through the early warning analysis process of RWRCC in Anhui Province, among which the repetitive use rate of industrial water and average daily coefficient have a greater impact on AWI. Basically, the EWS-RWRCC can describe RWRCC changes in Anhui Province. From 2006 to 2014, more than half the signal lights in Anhui Province were yellow and orange, which indicated a poor state. It has been proved that the constraints of population, GDP growth and water supply capacity on the utilization of water resources in the future will be further tightened, which should be considered for future monitoring and early warning. The early warning method we used here can be widely applied into other fields; the results will enhance monitoring capacity and scientifically guide regional water resources management.

Suggested Citation

  • Menglu Chen & Juliang Jin & Shaowei Ning & Yuliang Zhou & Parmeshwar Udmale, 2020. "Early Warning Method for Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on the Logical Curve and Aggregate Warning Index," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-15, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:7:p:2206-:d:337005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/7/2206/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/7/2206/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xing Huang & Hua Bai, 2018. "Risk prediction of rural public security environmental carrying capacity based on the risk entropy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(1), pages 157-171, January.
    2. Wang, Ran & Cheng, Jinhua & Zhu, Yali & Lu, Peixin, 2017. "Evaluation on the coupling coordination of resources and environment carrying capacity in Chinese mining economic zones," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-25.
    3. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    4. Lane, Murray & Dawes, Les & Grace, Peter, 2014. "The essential parameters of a resource-based carrying capacity assessment model: An Australian case study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 220-231.
    5. Wenqi Wang & Yuhong Sun & Jing Wu, 2018. "Environmental Warning System Based on the DPSIR Model: A Practical and Concise Method for Environmental Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Prakash Tiwari & Bhagwati Joshi, 2012. "Environmental Changes and Sustainable Development of Water Resources in the Himalayan Headwaters of India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(4), pages 883-907, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiaowei Zeng & Xiaomei Yang & Shuai Zhong & Zhihua Wang & Yaxin Ding & Dan Meng & Ku Gao, 2023. "Comprehensive Evaluation of Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity at a National Scale: A Case Study of Southeast Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-32, March.
    2. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 14-66, December.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    4. Dooley, Michael P., 2000. "International financial architecture and strategic default: can financial crises be less painful?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 361-377, December.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    6. Jerome L. Stein & Giovanna Paladino, 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and Crises," CESifo Working Paper Series 205, CESifo.
    7. Matkovskyy, Roman, 2013. "To the Problem of Financial Safety Estimation: the Index of Financial Safety of Turkey," MPRA Paper 47673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2012. "Causes of banking crises: Deregulation, credit booms and asset bubbles, then and now," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 270-294.
    9. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
    10. Samir Jahjah & Bin Wei & Vivian Zhanwei Yue, 2013. "Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1275-1300, October.
    11. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2005. "Capital controls and exchange rate instability in developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 387-412, April.
    12. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
    13. Prof.Dr. Cevat GERNI & Doc.Dr. O. Selcuk EMSEN & Dr. M. Kemal DEGER, 2005. "Erken Uyari Sistemlerý Yoluyla Turkiye’Deki Ekonomik Krizlerin Analizi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 2(1), pages 39-62, November.
    14. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Hausmann, Ricardo, 2001. "Is foreign direct investment a safer form of financing?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 34-49, March.
    16. Honda, Jiro & Tapsoba, René & Issifou, Ismael, 2022. "When do we repair the roof? Insights from responses to fiscal crisis early warning signals," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 349-367.
    17. Xiaojun Zhang & Weiqiao Wang & Yunan Bai & Yong Ye, 2022. "How Has China Structured Its Ecological Governance Policy System?—A Case from Fujian Province," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-22, July.
    18. Brüggemann, Axel & Linne, Thomas, 1999. "How Good are Leading Indicators for Currency and Banking Crises in Central and Eastern Europe? An Empirical Test," IWH Discussion Papers 95/1999, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    19. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
    20. Marcin Chlebus, 2014. "One-day prediction of state of turbulence for financial instrument based on models for binary dependent variable," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 37.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:7:p:2206-:d:337005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.