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A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of Resource Exploitation

Author

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  • Ugo Bardi

    (Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze, Via della Lastruccia 3, Sesto Fiorentino FI, Italy
    ASPO – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Italian section, c/o Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Italy)

  • Alessandro Lavacchi

    (Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze, Via della Lastruccia 3, Sesto Fiorentino FI, Italy
    ASPO – Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Italian section, c/o Dipartimento di Chimica, Università di Firenze, 50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Italy)

Abstract

The well known “Hubbert curve” assumes that the production curve of a crude oil in a free market economy is “bell shaped” and symmetric. The model was first applied in the 1950s as a way of forecasting the production of crude oil in the US lower 48 states. Today, variants of the model are often used for describing the worldwide production of crude oil, which is supposed to reach a global production peak (“peak oil”) and to decline afterwards. The model has also been shown to be generally valid for mineral resources other than crude oil and also for slowly renewable biological resources such as whales. Despite its widespread use, Hubbert’s modelis sometimes criticized for being arbitrary and its underlying assumptions are rarely examined. In the present work, we use a simple model to generate the bell shaped curve curve using the smallest possible number of assumptions, taking also into account the “Energy Return to Energy Invested” (EROI or EROEI) parameter. We show that this model can reproduce several historical cases, even for resources other than crude oil, and provide a useful tool for understanding the general mechanisms of resource exploitation and the future of energy production in the world’s economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ugo Bardi & Alessandro Lavacchi, 2009. "A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of Resource Exploitation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-16, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:2:y:2009:i:3:p:646-661:d:5539
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226137896 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Timothy J. Garrett, 2016. "Long-run evolution of the global economy - Part 2: Hindcasts of innovation and growth," Papers 1601.00233, arXiv.org.
    2. Bardi, Ugo & Lavacchi, Alessandro & Yaxley, Leigh, 2011. "Modelling EROEI and net energy in the exploitation of non renewable resources," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 54-58.
    3. Ugo Bardi, 2010. "Extracting Minerals from Seawater: An Energy Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-13, April.
    4. Sverdrup, Harald U. & Ragnarsdottir, Kristin Vala & Koca, Deniz, 2015. "Aluminium for the future: Modelling the global production, market supply, demand, price and long term development of the global reserves," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 139-154.
    5. Syed Aziz Ur Rehman & Yanpeng Cai & Nayyar Hussain Mirjat & Gordhan Das Walasai & Izaz Ali Shah & Sharafat Ali, 2017. "The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-24, November.
    6. Ilaria Perissi & Stefano Armenia & Roberto Pasqualino & Denes Csala, 2023. "Special Issue “From COP 26 to COP 27: Contributions of Systems Approaches to Address the Challenges Ahead”: An Editorial Commentary," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-7, September.
    7. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Pippenger, Michael K., 2010. "OPEC and Venezuelan oil production: Evidence against a cartel hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6045-6055, October.
    8. Perissi, Ilaria & Bardi, Ugo & El Asmar, Toufic & Lavacchi, Alessandro, 2017. "Dynamic patterns of overexploitation in fisheries," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 285-292.
    9. Naudé, Wim, 2023. "Melancholy Hues: The Futility of Green Growth and Degrowth, and the Inevitability of Societal Collapse," IZA Discussion Papers 16139, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Timothy J. Garrett, 2013. "Thermodynamics of long-run economic innovation and growth," Papers 1306.3554, arXiv.org.
    11. Ilaria Perissi & Alessandro Lavacchi & Ugo Bardi, 2021. "The Role of Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) in Complex Adaptive Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-15, December.
    12. Ediger, Volkan Ş. & Berk, Istemi, 2023. "Future availability of natural gas: Can it support sustainable energy transition?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    13. Sällh, David & Höök, Mikael & Grandell, Leena & Davidsson, Simon, 2014. "Evaluation and update of Norwegian and Danish oil production forecasts and implications for Swedish oil import," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 333-345.
    14. Harris, Tyler M. & Devkota, Jay P. & Khanna, Vikas & Eranki, Pragnya L. & Landis, Amy E., 2018. "Logistic growth curve modeling of US energy production and consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 46-57.
    15. Solé, J. & Samsó, R. & García-Ladona, E. & García-Olivares, A. & Ballabrera-Poy, J. & Madurell, T. & Turiel, A. & Osychenko, O. & Álvarez, D. & Bardi, U. & Baumann, M. & Buchmann, K. & Capellán-Pérez,, 2020. "Modelling the renewable transition: Scenarios and pathways for a decarbonized future using pymedeas, a new open-source energy systems model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    16. Walan, Petter & Davidsson, Simon & Johansson, Sheshti & Höök, Mikael, 2014. "Phosphate rock production and depletion: Regional disaggregated modeling and global implications," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 178-187.
    17. Blair Fix, 2017. "Energy and institution size," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, February.
    18. Bo Xu & Lianyong Feng & William X. Wei & Yan Hu & Jianliang Wang, 2014. "A Preliminary Forecast of the Production Status of China’s Daqing Oil field from the Perspective of EROI," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(11), pages 1-21, November.
    19. Ilaria Perissi & Alessandro Lavacchi & Ugo Bardi, 2023. "Peaking Dynamics of the Production Cycle of a Nonrenewable Resource," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-11, April.

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