IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v132y2020ics1364032120303968.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the renewable transition: Scenarios and pathways for a decarbonized future using pymedeas, a new open-source energy systems model

Author

Listed:
  • Solé, J.
  • Samsó, R.
  • García-Ladona, E.
  • García-Olivares, A.
  • Ballabrera-Poy, J.
  • Madurell, T.
  • Turiel, A.
  • Osychenko, O.
  • Álvarez, D.
  • Bardi, U.
  • Baumann, M.
  • Buchmann, K.
  • Capellán-Pérez, Í.
  • Černý, M.
  • Carpintero, Ó.
  • De Blas, I.
  • De Castro, C.
  • De Lathouwer, J.-D.
  • Duce, C.
  • Eggler, L.
  • Enríquez, J.M.
  • Falsini, S.
  • Feng, K.
  • Ferreras, N.
  • Frechoso, F.
  • Hubacek, K.
  • Jones, A.
  • Kaclíková, R.
  • Kerschner, C.
  • Kimmich, C.
  • Lobejón, L.F.
  • Lomas, P.L.
  • Martelloni, G.
  • Mediavilla, M.
  • Miguel, L.J.
  • Natalini, D.
  • Nieto, J.
  • Nikolaev, A.
  • Parrado, G.
  • Papagianni, S.
  • Perissi, I.
  • Ploiner, C.
  • Radulov, L.
  • Rodrigo, P.
  • Sun, L.
  • Theofilidi, M.

Abstract

This paper reviews different approaches to modelling the energy transition towards a zero carbon economy. It identifies a number of limitations in current approaches such as a lack of consideration of out-of-equilibrium situations (like an energy transition) and non-linear feedbacks. To tackle those issues, the new open source integrated assessment model pymedeas is introduced, which allows the exploration of the design and planning of appropriate strategies and policies for decarbonizing the energy sector at World and EU level. The main novelty of the new open-source model is that it addresses the energy transition by considering biophysical limits, availability of raw materials, and climate change impacts. This paper showcases the model capabilities through several simulation experiments to explore alternative pathways for the renewable transition. In the selected scenarios of this work, future shortage of fossil fuels is found to be the most influential factor of the simulations system evolution. Changes in efficiency and climate change damages are also important determinants influencing model outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Solé, J. & Samsó, R. & García-Ladona, E. & García-Olivares, A. & Ballabrera-Poy, J. & Madurell, T. & Turiel, A. & Osychenko, O. & Álvarez, D. & Bardi, U. & Baumann, M. & Buchmann, K. & Capellán-Pérez,, 2020. "Modelling the renewable transition: Scenarios and pathways for a decarbonized future using pymedeas, a new open-source energy systems model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:132:y:2020:i:c:s1364032120303968
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2020.110105
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032120303968
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110105?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Takuro Uehara & Mateo Cordier & Bertrand Hamaide, 2018. "Fully Dynamic Input-Output/System Dynamics Modeling for Ecological-Economic System Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup & Anna Hulda Olafsdottir, 2019. "Assessing the Long-Term Global Sustainability of the Production and Supply for Stainless Steel," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 1-29, June.
    3. Markaki, M. & Belegri-Roboli, A. & Michaelides, P. & Mirasgedis, S. & Lalas, D.P., 2013. "The impact of clean energy investments on the Greek economy: An input–output analysis (2010–2020)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 263-275.
    4. Annemiek K. Admiraal & Andries F. Hof & Michel G. J. Elzen & Detlef P. Vuuren, 2016. "Costs and benefits of differences in the timing of greenhouse gas emission reductions," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(8), pages 1165-1179, December.
    5. Pfenninger, Stefan & Hirth, Lion & Schlecht, Ingmar & Schmid, Eva & Wiese, Frauke & Brown, Tom & Davis, Chris & Gidden, Matthew & Heinrichs, Heidi & Heuberger, Clara & Hilpert, Simon & Krien, Uwe & Ma, 2018. "Opening the black box of energy modelling: Strategies and lessons learned," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19, pages 63-71.
    6. Ioannis N. Kessides & David C. Wade, 2011. "Deriving an Improved Dynamic EROI to Provide Better Information for Energy Planners," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(12), pages 1-19, December.
    7. Kriegler, Elmar & Petermann, Nils & Krey, Volker & Schwanitz, Valeria Jana & Luderer, Gunnar & Ashina, Shuichi & Bosetti, Valentina & Eom, Jiyong & Kitous, Alban & Méjean, Aurélie & Paroussos, Leonida, 2015. "Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 45-61.
    8. Capellán-Pérez, Iñigo & de Castro, Carlos & Arto, Iñaki, 2017. "Assessing vulnerabilities and limits in the transition to renewable energies: Land requirements under 100% solar energy scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 760-782.
    9. Takuro Uehara & Mateo Cordier & Bertrand Hamaide, 2018. "Fully dynamic input-output/system dynamics modeling for ecological-economic system analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/277116, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Markandya, Anil & Arto, Iñaki & González-Eguino, Mikel & Román, Maria V., 2016. "Towards a green energy economy? Tracking the employment effects of low-carbon technologies in the European Union," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1342-1350.
    11. H. Damon Matthews & Nathan P. Gillett & Peter A. Stott & Kirsten Zickfeld, 2009. "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7248), pages 829-832, June.
    12. Arestis, Philip, 1996. "Post-Keynesian Economics: Towards Coherence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 111-135, January.
    13. Bertsch, Valentin & Hall, Margeret & Weinhardt, Christof & Fichtner, Wolf, 2016. "Public acceptance and preferences related to renewable energy and grid expansion policy: Empirical insights for Germany," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 465-477.
    14. Ugo Bardi & Alessandro Lavacchi, 2009. "A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of Resource Exploitation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-16, August.
    15. Keček, Damira & Mikulić, Davor & Lovrinčević, Željko, 2019. "Deployment of renewable energy: Economic effects on the Croatian economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 402-410.
    16. Berg, Matthew & Hartley, Brian & Richters, Oliver, 2015. "A stock-flow consistent input–output model with applications to energy price shocks, interest rates, and heat emissions," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 17(1).
    17. Taylor, Lance & Rezai, Armon & Foley, Duncan K., 2016. "An integrated approach to climate change, income distribution, employment, and economic growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 196-205.
    18. Howells, Mark & Rogner, Holger & Strachan, Neil & Heaps, Charles & Huntington, Hillard & Kypreos, Socrates & Hughes, Alison & Silveira, Semida & DeCarolis, Joe & Bazillian, Morgan & Roehrl, Alexander, 2011. "OSeMOSYS: The Open Source Energy Modeling System: An introduction to its ethos, structure and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5850-5870, October.
    19. Hafner, Sarah & Anger-Kraavi, Annela & Monasterolo, Irene & Jones, Aled, 2020. "Emergence of New Economics Energy Transition Models: A Review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    20. Solé, Jordi & García-Olivares, Antonio & Turiel, Antonio & Ballabrera-Poy, Joaquim, 2018. "Renewable transitions and the net energy from oil liquids: A scenarios study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 258-271.
    21. Ilaria Perissi & Sara Falsini & Ugo Bardi & Davide Natalini & Michael Green & Aled Jones & Jordi Solé, 2018. "Potential European Emissions Trajectories within the Global Carbon Budget," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, November.
    22. James E. Neumann & Jacqueline Willwerth & Jeremy Martinich & James McFarland & Marcus C. Sarofim & Gary Yohe, 2020. "Climate Damage Functions for Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the United States," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 25-43.
    23. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Marcel Timmer & Gaaitzen de Vries, 2013. "The Construction Of World Input-Output Tables In The Wiod Project," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 71-98, March.
    24. Lewis C. King & Jeroen C. J. M. van den Bergh, 2018. "Implications of net energy-return-on-investment for a low-carbon energy transition," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 334-340, April.
    25. Sgouris Sgouridis & Michael Carbajales-Dale & Denes Csala & Matteo Chiesa & Ugo Bardi, 2019. "Comparative net energy analysis of renewable electricity and carbon capture and storage," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 456-465, June.
    26. Charles Neumeyer & Robert Goldston, 2016. "Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-15, April.
    27. Niklas Höhne & Michel den Elzen & Joeri Rogelj & Bert Metz & Taryn Fransen & Takeshi Kuramochi & Anne Olhoff & Joseph Alcamo & Harald Winkler & Sha Fu & Michiel Schaeffer & Roberto Schaeffer & Glen P., 2020. "Emissions: world has four times the work or one-third of the time," Nature, Nature, vol. 579(7797), pages 25-28, March.
    28. Boumans, Roelof & Costanza, Robert & Farley, Joshua & Wilson, Matthew A. & Portela, Rosimeiry & Rotmans, Jan & Villa, Ferdinando & Grasso, Monica, 2002. "Modeling the dynamics of the integrated earth system and the value of global ecosystem services using the GUMBO model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 529-560, June.
    29. Hardt, Lukas & O'Neill, Daniel W., 2017. "Ecological Macroeconomic Models: Assessing Current Developments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 198-211.
    30. Takuro Uehara & Yoko Nagase & Wayne Wakeland, 2016. "Integrating Economics and System Dynamics Approaches for Modelling an Ecological–Economic System," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 515-531, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chong, Cheng Tung & Fan, Yee Van & Lee, Chew Tin & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír, 2022. "Post COVID-19 ENERGY sustainability and carbon emissions neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    2. Delannoy, Louis & Longaretti, Pierre-Yves & Murphy, David J. & Prados, Emmanuel, 2021. "Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    3. Chang, Miguel & Thellufsen, Jakob Zink & Zakeri, Behnam & Pickering, Bryn & Pfenninger, Stefan & Lund, Henrik & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2021. "Trends in tools and approaches for modelling the energy transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    4. Ilaria Perissi & Gianluca Martelloni & Ugo Bardi & Davide Natalini & Aled Jones & Angel Nikolaev & Lukas Eggler & Martin Baumann & Roger Samsó & Jordi Solé, 2021. "Cross-Validation of the MEDEAS Energy-Economy-Environment Model with the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-27, February.
    5. Di Leo, Senatro & Pietrapertosa, Filomena & Salvia, Monica & Cosmi, Carmelina, 2021. "Contribution of the Basilicata region to decarbonisation of the energy system: results of a scenario analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Robert Ulewicz & Dominika Siwiec & Andrzej Pacana & Magdalena Tutak & Jarosław Brodny, 2021. "Multi-Criteria Method for the Selection of Renewable Energy Sources in the Polish Industrial Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-30, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nieto, Jaime & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis J. & de Blas, Ignacio, 2020. "Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Jacques, Pierre & Delannoy, Louis & Andrieu, Baptiste & Yilmaz, Devrim & Jeanmart, Hervé & Godin, Antoine, 2023. "Assessing the economic consequences of an energy transition through a biophysical stock-flow consistent model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    3. Takuro Uehara & Mateo Cordier & Bertrand Hamaide, 2018. "Fully Dynamic Input-Output/System Dynamics Modeling for Ecological-Economic System Analysis," Post-Print hal-02862512, HAL.
    4. Ilaria Perissi & Gianluca Martelloni & Ugo Bardi & Davide Natalini & Aled Jones & Angel Nikolaev & Lukas Eggler & Martin Baumann & Roger Samsó & Jordi Solé, 2021. "Cross-Validation of the MEDEAS Energy-Economy-Environment Model with the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System (TIMES) and the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-27, February.
    5. Takuro Uehara & Mateo Cordier & Bertrand Hamaide, 2018. "Fully dynamic input-output/system dynamics modeling for ecological-economic system analysis," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/277116, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Takuro Uehara & Mateo Cordier & Bertrand Hamaide, 2018. "Fully Dynamic Input-Output/System Dynamics Modeling for Ecological-Economic System Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-22, May.
    7. Grant Allan & Kevin Connolly & Peter McGregor & Andrew G Ross, 2019. "Economic activity supported by offshore wind: a hypothetical extraction study," Working Papers 1911, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    8. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Hasret Sahin & A. A. Solomon & Arman Aghahosseini & Christian Breyer, 2024. "Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Angeles Cámara & Rosa Santero-Sánchez, 2019. "Economic, Social, and Environmental Impact of a Sustainable Fisheries Model in Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-16, November.
    11. Nikas, A. & Gambhir, A. & Trutnevyte, E. & Koasidis, K. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Mayer, D. & Zachmann, G. & Miguel, L.J. & Ferreras-Alonso, N. & Sognnaes, I. & Peters, G.P. & Colombo, E. & Howe, 2021. "Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PA).
    12. Antoine Monserand, 2019. "Degrowth in a neo-Kaleckian model of growth and distribution? A theoretical compatibility and stability analysis," Working Papers hal-02012632, HAL.
    13. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2017. "A stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 191-207.
    14. Nabernegg, Stefan & Bednar-Friedl, Birgit & Muñoz, Pablo & Titz, Michaela & Vogel, Johanna, 2019. "National Policies for Global Emission Reductions: Effectiveness of Carbon Emission Reductions in International Supply Chains," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 146-157.
    15. Antoine Monserand, 2019. "Degrowth in a neo-Kaleckian model of growth and distribution? A theoretical compatibility and stability analysis," CEPN Working Papers 2019-01, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    16. Ramos, Carmen & García, Ana Salomé & Moreno, Blanca & Díaz, Guzmán, 2019. "Small-scale renewable power technologies are an alternative to reach a sustainable economic growth: Evidence from Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 13-25.
    17. Jens Weibezahn & Mario Kendziorski, 2019. "Illustrating the Benefits of Openness: A Large-Scale Spatial Economic Dispatch Model Using the Julia Language," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, March.
    18. Yongyang Cai & William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2023. "Climate Change Impact on Economic Growth: Regional Climate Policy under Cooperation and Noncooperation," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(3), pages 569-605.
    19. Sacha Hodencq & Mathieu Brugeron & Jaume Fitó & Lou Morriet & Benoit Delinchant & Frédéric Wurtz, 2021. "OMEGAlpes, an Open-Source Optimisation Model Generation Tool to Support Energy Stakeholders at District Scale," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-30, September.
    20. David J. Murphy & Marco Raugei & Michael Carbajales-Dale & Brenda Rubio Estrada, 2022. "Energy Return on Investment of Major Energy Carriers: Review and Harmonization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:132:y:2020:i:c:s1364032120303968. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.