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Analyzing Scenarios for the Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in the Mexican Energy System—An Application of the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD)

Author

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  • Luis Sarmiento

    (DIW Berlin, Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany
    CIDE Mexico, Carr. México-Toluca 3655, Santa Fe, Altavista, Ciudad de México 01210, CDMX, Mexico
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Thorsten Burandt

    (DIW Berlin, Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany
    Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17 Juni 135, 10629 Berlin, Germany
    Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management (IØT), NTNU Trondheim, Høgskoleringen 1, 7491 Trondheim, Norway
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Konstantin Löffler

    (DIW Berlin, Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany
    Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17 Juni 135, 10629 Berlin, Germany
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Pao-Yu Oei

    (DIW Berlin, Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany
    Workgroup for Infrastructure Policy, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17 Juni 135, 10629 Berlin, Germany
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

This paper uses numerical techno-economic modelling to analyse the effect of current national renewable targets and climate goals on the cost and structural composition of the Mexican energy system. For this, we construct a scenario base analysis to compare current policies with two alternative states of the world—one without climate policies and one attaining full decarbonization. Furthermore, an additional iterative routine allows us to estimate the cost-optimal share of renewable technologies in the energy sector and the effect that deviating from this share has on total discounted system costs, emissions and the structure of the energy mix. In general, model results exhibit three key insights—(1) A marked dependence of the energy system on photovoltaics and natural gas; (2) The 2050 cost-optimal share of renewables for the production of electricity, transportation and industrial heating is respectively 75%, 90% and 5%; and (3) As national renewable targets for the power sector are lower than the cost-optimal share of renewables, equivalent to the shares in an scenario without climate policies and completely disconnected from national climate goals, these should be modified.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Sarmiento & Thorsten Burandt & Konstantin Löffler & Pao-Yu Oei, 2019. "Analyzing Scenarios for the Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in the Mexican Energy System—An Application of the Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:17:p:3270-:d:260819
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    2. Davi-Arderius, Daniel & Jamasb, Tooraj & Rosellon, Juan, 2024. "Network Operation and Constraints and the Path to Net Zero," Working Papers 8-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    3. Gutiérrez-Meave, Raúl & Rosellón, Juan & Sarmiento, Luis, 2021. "The Effect of Changing Marginal-Cost to Physical-Order Dispatch in the Power Sector," RFF Working Paper Series 21-19, Resources for the Future.
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    5. Nascimento, Viviane Tavares & Gimenes, Patricia Albuquerque & Morales Udaeta, Miguel Edgar & Veiga Gimenes, André L. & Riboldi, Victor Baiochi & Ji, Tuo, 2023. "Transition mapping for modern energy service provision under uncertainty: A case study from Brazil," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
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    8. Daniel Icaza-Alvarez & Nestor Daniel Galan-Hernandez & Eber Enrique Orozco-Guillen & Francisco Jurado, 2023. "Smart Energy Planning in the Midst of a Technological and Political Change towards a 100% Renewable System in Mexico by 2050," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-26, October.
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    12. Oei, Pao-Yu & Burandt, Thorsten & Hainsch, Karlo & Löffler, Konstantin & Kemfert, Claudia, 2020. "Lessons from Modeling 100% Renewable Scenarios Using GENeSYS-MOD," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 103-120.
    13. Zozmann, Elmar & Göke, Leonard & Kendziorski, Mario & Rodriguez del Angel, Citlali & von Hirschhausen, Christian & Winkler, Johanna, 2021. "100% Renewable Energy Scenarios for North America—Spatial Distribution and Network Constraints," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14(3).
    14. Adam Sulich & Letycja Sołoducho-Pelc, 2022. "Changes in Energy Sector Strategies: A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-26, September.
    15. Plazas-Niño, F.A. & Ortiz-Pimiento, N.R. & Montes-Páez, E.G., 2022. "National energy system optimization modelling for decarbonization pathways analysis: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    16. Elmar Zozmann & Leonard Göke & Mario Kendziorski & Citlali Rodriguez del Angel & Christian von Hirschhausen & Johanna Winkler, 2021. "100% Renewable Energy Scenarios for North America—Spatial Distribution and Network Constraints," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, January.

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