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Understanding Japan's saving rate: the reconstruction hypothesis

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Author Info
Lawrence J. Christiano
Abstract

This paper evaluates Hayashi's conjecture that Japan's postwar saving experience can be accounted for by the neoclassical model of economic growth as that country's efforts to reconstruct its capital stock that was severely damaged in World War II. I call this the reconstruction hypothesis. I take a simplified version of a standard neoclassical growth model that is in widespread use in macroeconomics and simulate its response to capital destruction. The saving rate path implied by the model differs significantly from the path taken by actual Japanese postwar saving data. I discuss several model modifications which would reconcile the reconstruction hypothesis with Japan's postwar saving experience. For the reconstruction hypothesis to be credible requires independent evidence on the empirical plausibility of the model modifications. It is left to future research to determine whether that evidence exists.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its journal Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (1989)
Issue (Month): Spr ()
Pages: 10-25
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:1989:i:spr:p:10-25:n:v.13no.2

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Keywords: Saving and investment ; Japan;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Taylor, John B & Uhlig, Harald, 1990. "Solving Nonlinear Stochastic Growth Models: A Comparison of Alternative Solution Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
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  3. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. James M. Nason, 1988. "The equity premium and time-varying risk behavior," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Mirrlees, J. A. & Stern, N. H., 1972. "Fairly good plans," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 268-288, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1987. "Why is consumption less volatile than income?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 2-20. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1989. "The magnitude of the speculative motive for holding inventories in a real business cycle model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 10, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Cochrane, John H, 1989. "The Sensitivity of Tests of the Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption to Near-Rational Alternatives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 319-37, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. James A. Schmitz, Jr., 1993. "Early progress on the "problem of economic development"," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 17-35. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fumio Hayashi, 1989. "Japan's Saving Rate: New Data and Reflections," NBER Working Papers 3205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 2001. "Transition dynamics in vintage capital models: explaining the postwar catch-up of Germany and Japan," Working Papers 01-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Cristina Echevarria, 2000. "Non-homothetic preferences and growth," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 151-171, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2007. "The Saving Rate in Japan: Why It Has Fallen and Why It Will Remain Low," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-535, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  6. David W. Campbell, 1999. "Explaining Japan's Saving Rate," Macroeconomics 9902004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Fidel Pérez Sebastián, 2001. "Growth And Public Support To Innovation And Imitation," Working Papers. Serie AD 2001-31, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  8. Craig Burnside & David Dollar, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Chris Papageorgiou & Fidel Perez-Sebastian, . "Human Capital and Convergence in a Non-Scale R&D Growth Model," Departmental Working Papers 2002-10, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University. [Downloadable!]
  10. David W. Campbell, . "A Critical Analysis of Empirical Studies of Transfers in Japan," Economics Working Paper Archive 53, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  11. Chris Papageorgiou & Fidel Perez-Sebastian, . "Can Transition Dynamics Explain the International Output Data?," Departmental Working Papers 2003-13, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University. [Downloadable!]
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  12. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1996. "The Poverty of Nations: A Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 5414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Keisuke Otsu, 2007. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Postwar Japanese Economy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado, 2006. "Growth Outside The Stable Path: Lessons From The European Reconstruction," Departmental Working Papers 2006-02, McGill University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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