The magnitude of the speculative motive for holding inventories in a real business cycle model

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The magnitude of the speculative motive for holding inventories in a real business cycle model

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Lawrence J. Christiano
Terry J. Fitzgerald

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Abstract

The motive to hold inventories purely in the hope of profiting from a price increase is called the speculative motive. This motive has received considerable attention in the literature. However, existing studies do not have a clear implication for how large it is quantitatively. This paper incorporates the speculative motive for holding inventories into an otherwise standard real business cycle model and finds that empirically plausible parameterizations of the model result in an average inventory stock to output ratio that is virtually zero. For this reason, we conclude that the quantitative magnitude of the speculative role for holding inventories in this model is quite small. This suggests the possibility that the study of aggregate economic phenomena can safely abstract from inventory speculation.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics with number 10.

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Date of creation: 1989
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:10

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Jonas D.M. Fisher & Andreas Hornstein, 1998. "(S,s) Inventory policies in general equilibrium," Working Paper 97-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Fisher, J.D.M. & Hornstein, A., 1995. "(S,s)Inventory Policies in General Equilibrium," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9514, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Jonas D.M. Fisher & Andreas Hornstein, 1996. "(S, s) inventory policies in general equilibrium," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
- Jonas D.M. Fisher & Andreas Hornstein, 1995. "(S,s) inventory policies in general equilibrium," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 104, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
- Fisher, Jonas D M & Hornstein, Andreas, 2000. "(S, s) Inventory Policies in General Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 117-45, January.
Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2007. "Input and Output Inventories in General Equilibrium," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 658, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Matteo Iacoviello & Fabio Schiantarelli & Scott Schuh, 2007. "Input and output inventories in general equilibrium," Working Papers 07-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1997. "Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Working Paper 9711, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 1994. "Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Staff Report 171, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1997. "Algorithms for Solving Dynamic Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," NBER Technical Working Papers 0218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1997. "Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1994. "Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2000. "Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1179-1232, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lawrence J. Christiano, 1989. "Understanding Japan's saving rate: the reconstruction hypothesis," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 10-25. [Downloadable!]

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