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Comparing patterns of default among prime and subprime mortgages

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Abstract

This article compares default patterns among prime and subprime mortgages, analyzes the factors correlated with default, and examines how forecasts of defaults are affected by alternative assumptions about trends in home prices. The authors find that extremely pessimistic forecasts of home price appreciation could have generated predictions of subprime defaults that were closer to the actual default experience for loans originated in 2006 and 2007. However, for prime loans one would have also had to anticipate that defaults would become much more sensitive to home prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Gene Amromin & Anna L. Paulson, 2009. "Comparing patterns of default among prime and subprime mortgages," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 33(Q II), pages 18-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2009:i:qii:p:18-37:n:v.33no.2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Goette, Lorenz & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Just the facts: An initial analysis of subprime's role in the housing crisis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 291-305, December.
    2. Kristopher Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007. "Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures," Working Papers 07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Giovanni Dell’ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
    4. Kristopher Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul Willen, 2008. "Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 69-159.
    5. Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The evolution of the subprime mortgage market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Jan), pages 31-56.
    6. Danielle DiMartino & John V. Duca, 2007. "The rise and fall of subprime mortgages," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 2(nov).
    7. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
    9. Charles W. Calomiris, 2008. "The subprime turmoil: what’s old, what’s new, and what’s next," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 19-110.
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    Cited by:

    1. Demyanyk, Yuliya, 2017. "The impact of missed payments and foreclosures on credit scores," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 108-119.
    2. Marius Ascheberg & Robert A. Jarrow & Holger Kraft & Yildiray Yildirim, 2014. "Government Policies, Residential Mortgage Defaults and the Boom and Bust Cycle of Housing Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 627-661, September.
    3. Do, Hung Xuan & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "Predicting loss severities for residential mortgage loans: A three-step selection approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 246-259.
    4. Andrew R. Sanderford & George A. Overstreet & Peter A. Beling & Kanshukan Rajaratnam, 2015. "Energy-efficient homes and mortgage risk: crossing the chasm at last?," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 157-168, March.
    5. Yaseen Ghulam & Sophie Hill, 2017. "Distinguishing between Good and Bad Subprime Auto Loans Borrowers: The Role of Demographic, Region and Loan Characteristics," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 10, pages 49-62, November.
    6. Kyungsoon Wang, 2019. "Housing market resilience: Neighbourhood and metropolitan factors explaining resilience before and after the US housing crisis," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 56(13), pages 2688-2708, October.
    7. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2021. "Systematic credit risk in securitised mortgage portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Yaseen Ghulam & Kamini Dhruva & Sana Naseem & Sophie Hill, 2018. "The Interaction of Borrower and Loan Characteristics in Predicting Risks of Subprime Automobile Loans," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-21, September.
    9. Michael Thornley, 2016. "Financial stability risks from housing market cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-16, July.
    10. Yamout, Nadine, 2023. "Securitization of subprime credit and the propagation of housing shocks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 125.
    11. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2016. "Accuracy of mortgage portfolio risk forecasts during financial crises," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 440-456.
    12. Thi Mai Luong & Harald Scheule & Nitya Wanzare, 2023. "Impact of mortgage soft information in loan pricing on default prediction using machine learning," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 158-186, March.

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