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Finite horizons and the twin deficits

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Author Info
Kenneth Kasa

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Abstract

This paper uses Blanchard's (1985) model to study the relationship between budget deficits and trade deficits. The model is applied to annual post-war data from the U.S., Japan, and Germany. I find that in all three countries there is a significant link between trade deficits and budget deficits, holding constant expected changes in GNP and government expenditure. However, the implied planning horizons are quite different across countries. In particular, the implied planning horizon in the U.S. is only about 3 to 4 years, whereas in Japan it is 71 years and in Germany it is 31 years.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1994)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 19-28
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1994:p:19-28:n:3

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Keywords: Balance of trade Budget deficits Japan Germany

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Finite lifetimes and the effects of budget deficits on national saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 369-391, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1988. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Leiderman, Leonardo & Razin, Assaf, 1988. "Testing Ricardian Neutrality with an Intertemporal Stochastic Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(1), pages 1-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Reuven Glick & Kenneth Rogoff, 1992. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 92-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  7. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-90, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Hsiao-chuan Chang, 2004. "Budget Balance And Trade Balance:Kin Or Strangers. A Case Study Of Taiwan," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 893, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  2. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Ghazi Shukur, 2002. "Multivariate-based causality tests of twin deficits in the US," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 817-824, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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