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Finite horizons and the twin deficits

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  • Kenneth Kasa

Abstract

This paper uses Blanchard's (1985) model to study the relationship between budget deficits and trade deficits. The model is applied to annual post-war data from the U.S., Japan, and Germany. I find that in all three countries there is a significant link between trade deficits and budget deficits, holding constant expected changes in GNP and government expenditure. However, the implied planning horizons are quite different across countries. In particular, the implied planning horizon in the U.S. is only about 3 to 4 years, whereas in Japan it is 71 years and in Germany it is 31 years.

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File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/review/1994/94-3_19-28.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1994)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 19-28

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1994:p:19-28:n:3

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Keywords: Balance of trade ; Budget deficits ; Japan ; Germany;

References

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  1. Glick, Reuven & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 159-192, February.
  2. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  3. Sheffrin, Steven M. & Woo, Wing Thye, 1990. "Testing an optimizing model of the current account via the consumption function," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 220-233, June.
  4. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Finite Lifetimes and the Effects of Budget Deficits on National Savings," Working papers 434, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-90, March.
  6. Barro, Robert J., 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Scholarly Articles 3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Leonardo Leiderman & Assaf Razin, 1987. "Testing Ricardian Neutrality with an Intertemporal Stochastic Model," NBER Working Papers 2258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Frenkel, Jacob A & Razin, Assaf, 1986. "Fiscal Policies in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 564-94, June.
  10. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Ghazi Shukur, 2002. "Multivariate-based causality tests of twin deficits in the US," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 817-824.
  2. Hsiao-chuan Chang, 2004. "Budget Balance And Trade Balance:Kin Or Strangers. A Case Study Of Taiwan," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 893, The University of Melbourne.
  3. Misztal, Piotr, 2012. "The link between government budget and current account in the Baltic countries," MPRA Paper 40784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Rafiq, Sohrab, 2010. "Fiscal stance, the current account and the real exchange rate: Some empirical estimates from a time-varying framework," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 276-290, November.
  5. Leachman, Lori L. & Francis, Bill B., 2000. "Multicointegration Analysis of the Sustainability of Foreign Debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 207-227, April.

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