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Bank diversification: laws and fallacies of large numbers

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Author Info
Joseph G. Haubrich

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Abstract

Conventional wisdom on bank diversification confuses risk with failure. This article clarifies the distinction and shows how increasing bank size may increase bank risk, even though it lessens the probability of failure and lowers the expected loss. The key result is an application of Samuelson's "fallacy of large numbers."

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File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/review/1998/98-q2-haubrich.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (1998)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
Pages: 2-9
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:1998:i:qii:p:2-9:n:v.34no.2

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Related research
Keywords: Bank size ; Bank failures ; Risk;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pennacchi, George G, 1987. "A Reexamination of the Over- (or Under-) Pricing of Deposit Insurance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(3), pages 340-60, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Haubrich, Joseph G., 1990. "Nonmonetary effects of financial crises : Lessons from the great depression in Canada," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 223-252, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kihlstrom, Richard E & Romer, David & Williams, Steve, 1981. "Risk Aversion with Random Initial Wealth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 911-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Boyd, John H. & Runkle, David E., 1993. "Size and performance of banking firms : Testing the predictions of theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 47-67, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pratt, John W & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1987. "Proper Risk Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 143-54, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Miles S. Kimball, 1991. "Standard Risk Aversion," NBER Technical Working Papers 0099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Thomson, James B, 1987. "The Use of Market Information in Pricing Deposit Insurance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(4), pages 528-37, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gianni De Nicoló & Philip F. Bartholomew & Jahanara Zaman & M. G. Zephirin, 2003. "Bank Consolidation, Internationalization and Conglomeration: Trends and Implications for Financial Risk," IMF Working Papers 03/158, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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