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Precautionary Bidding in Auctions

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Author Info
Péter Esö
Lucy White

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Abstract

We analyze bidding behavior in auctions when risk-averse buyers bid for a good whose value is risky. We show that when the risk in the valuations increases, DARA bidders will reduce their bids by more than the appropriate increase in the risk premium. Ceteris paribus, buyers will be better off bidding for a more risky object in first price, second price, and English auctions with affiliated common (interdependent) values. This "precautionary bidding" effect arises because the expected marginal utility of income increases with risk, so buyers are reluctant to bid so highly. We also show that precautionary bidding behavior can make DARA bidders prefer bidding in a common values setting to bidding in a private values one when risk-neutral or CARA bidders would be indifferent. Thus the potential for a "winner's curse" can be a blessing for rational DARA bidders. Copyright Econometric Society 2004.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2004.00478.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Econometric Society in its journal Econometrica.

Volume (Year): 72 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
Pages: 77-92
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:72:y:2004:i:1:p:77-92

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. EECKHOUDT, Louis & Christian GOLLIER & Harris SCHLESINGER, 1994. "Changes in Background Risk and Risk Taking Behavior," Working Papers 005, Risk and Insurance Archive.
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  3. Susan Athey & Jonathan Levin, 2001. "Information and Competition in U.S. Forest Service Timber Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 375-417, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sandmo, Agnar, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 353-60, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kihlstrom, Richard E & Romer, David & Williams, Steve, 1981. "Risk Aversion with Random Initial Wealth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 911-20, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Peter Eso & Lucy White, 2001. "Precautionary Bidding in Auctions," Discussion Papers 1331, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Kimball, Miles S, 1993. "Standard Risk Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(3), pages 589-611, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Maskin, Eric & Riley, John, 2000. "Equilibrium in Sealed High Bid Auctions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(3), pages 439-54, July.
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  16. Krishna, Vijay & Morgan, John, 1997. "An Analysis of the War of Attrition and the All-Pay Auction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 343-362, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Levin, Dan & Smith, James L, 1994. "Equilibrium in Auctions with Entry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 585-99, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Maskin, Eric S & Riley, John G, 1984. "Optimal Auctions with Risk Averse Buyers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(6), pages 1473-1518, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Dreze, Jacques H. & Modigliani, Franco, 1972. "Consumption decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 308-335, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Esö, Péter & White, Lucy, 2003. "Precautionary Bidding in Auctions," CEPR Discussion Papers 3975, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Jérôme Foncel & Nicolas Treich, 2005. "Fear of Ruin," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 289-300, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Maarten C.W. Janssen & Vladimir A. Karamychev, 2005. "Auctions, Market Prices and the Risk Attitude Effect," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-025/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fangcheng Tang & Weizhou Zhong & Shunfeng Song, 2006. "Tenders with Different Risk Preferences in Construction Industry," Working Papers 06-006, University of Nevada, Reno, Department of Economics & University of Nevada, Reno , Department of Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lu, Jingfeng & Perrigne, Isabelle, 2006. "Estimating risk aversion from ascending and sealed-bid auctions: the case of timber auction data," MPRA Paper 948, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. TREICH Nicolas, 2009. "Risk-aversion and Prudence in Rent-seeking Games," Working Papers 09.05.281, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gadi Fibich & Arieh Gavious & Aner Sela, 2006. "All-pay auctions with risk-averse players," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 583-599, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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