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Term Structure of Sovereign Spreads - A Contingent Claim Model

Author

Listed:
  • Rocha, Katia
  • Alcaraz Garcia, Francisco Augusto
  • Teixeira, José Paulo

Abstract

Este trabalho propõe um modelo estrutural para estimar a estrutura a termo e a probabilidade implícita de default de países emergentes que representam, em média, 54 % do índice EMBIG do JPMorgan no período de 2000–2005. A taxa de câmbio real, modelada como um processo de difusão simples, é considerada como indicativa de default. O modelo calibrado gera a estrutura a termo dos spreads consistente com dados de mercado, indicando que o mercado sistematicamente sobre-estima os spreads para o Brasil em 100 pontos base na média, enquanto para México, Rússia e Turquia reproduz o comportamento do mercado.

Suggested Citation

  • Rocha, Katia & Alcaraz Garcia, Francisco Augusto & Teixeira, José Paulo, 2007. "Term Structure of Sovereign Spreads - A Contingent Claim Model," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 61(4), July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:61:y:2007:i:4:a:907
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