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Interest rate and inflation expectations in Finland 1987-1994 : a case for the inverted fisher hypothesis

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  • Mika Linden

    (University of Helsinki, Finland)

Abstract

The relationship between interest rates and the rate of inflation is analyzed with cointegration methods in the context of the inverted Fisher hypothesis. The hypothesis is not rejected. The results indicate that the main reasons for the interest rate behaviour in the period 1987/1-1 995/III were positive and over reacting dependence on foreign interest rates and negative dependence on the exchange rate. Real interest rates react to the inflation rate with a coefficient value of close to -1, and the inflation effects on the nominal rates are insignificant. One step recursive predictions of inflation process support the existence of a negative price expectations effect on the real interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mika Linden, 1995. "Interest rate and inflation expectations in Finland 1987-1994 : a case for the inverted fisher hypothesis," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 108-115, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:fep:journl:v:8:y:1995:i:2:p:108-115
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wray, L Randall, 1992. "Alternative Theories of the Rate of Interest," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 16(1), pages 69-89, March.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    5. Mikael Linden, 1995. "The sizes and powers of some proposed I(1) and I(0) tests for a typical macro-economic time series," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(7), pages 203-207.
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    Cited by:

    1. Junttila, Juha, 2001. "Testing an Augmented Fisher Hypothesis for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Finland," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 577-599, October.
    2. Ercan Özen & Letife Özdemir & Simon Grima, 2020. "The Relationship between the Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Inflation: The Case of Turkey," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(2), pages 259-275, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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