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Outliers in eleven Finnish macroeconomic time series

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Author Info
Jussi Tolvi (Department of Economics, University of Turku, Finland)
Abstract

Outliers are detected from eleven monthly Finnish macroeconomic time series (from 1922 to 1996), and underlying reasons for the detected outliers suggested. Outliers are found in all of the series. The detected outliers seem to cluster together, both within and across series. Some of the detected outliers are also highly influential with respect to some nonlinearity tests, and the results can change in either direction (from significant nonlinearity to non-significant, or vice versa) after the outliers are taken into account. Mostly, however, the evidence for nonlinearity is reduced after the outliers are taken into account.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Finnish Economic Association in its journal Finnish Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 14 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (Spring)
Pages: 14-32
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Handle: RePEc:fep:journl:v:14:y:2001:i:1:p:14-32

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Web page: http://www.taloustieteellinenyhdistys.fi
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C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Ph.H.B.F. Franses & D.J.C. van Dijk, 1999. "Outlier detection in the GARCH (1,1) model," Econometric Institute Report 155, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ledolter, Johannes, 1989. "The effect of additive outliers on the forecasts from ARIMA models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 231-240. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hoek, Henk & Lucas, Andre & van Dijk, Herman K., 1995. "Classical and Bayesian aspects of robust unit root inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 27-59, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Chen, Cathy W. S., 1997. "Detection of additive outliers in bilinear time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 283-294, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1999. "Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in the Presence of Outliers," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 217-35, April.
    Other versions:
  6. Weiss, Andrew A, 1986. "ARCH and Bilinear Time Series Models: Comparison and Combination," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 59-70, January.
  7. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
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  8. Balke, Nathan S, 1993. "Detecting Level Shifts in Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 81-92, January.
  9. Shinichi Sakata & Halbert White, 1998. "High Breakdown Point Conditional Dispersion Estimation with Application to S&P 500 Daily Returns Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 529-568, May.
  10. Balke, Nathan S. & Fomby, Thomas B., 1991. "Shifting trends, segmented trends, and infrequent permanent shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 61-85, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2008. "The impact of outliers on transitory and permanent components in macroeconomic time series," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(60), pages 1-9. [Downloadable!]
  2. Olivier Darné & Jean-François Hoarau, 2006. "Testing the purchasing power parity in China," EconomiX Working Papers 2006-18, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  3. Olivier Darne & Laetitia Ripoll-Bresson, 2004. "Exchange rate regime classification and real performances: new empirical evidence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 21, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  4. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Modeling the Volatility of Real GDP Growth: The Case of Japan Revisited," Working Papers 0904, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2009. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860–1988," Working Papers hal-00422502_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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