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Labor-Market Performance and Macroeconomic Policy: Time-Varying NAIRU in the Czech Republic (in English)

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Author Info

  • Jaromír Hurník

    ()
    (Czech National Bank, Prague)

  • David Navrátil

    ()
    (Èeská spoøitelna, Prague)

Abstract

During the second half of the 1990s, the Czech economy experienced a sharp increase in the unemployment rate. The authors attempt to determine whether this was caused by structural changes, worsening labor-market performance, or by the changing business-cycle position. This has direct implications for both monetary and fiscal policy. The authors use NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) estimates using time-varying NAIRU. The estimates indicate that the NAIRU increased between 1996 and 2002 by approximately 1.5 percent. Estimated increases in the NAIRU can be associated with the worsening of labor-market efficiency.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 55 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (January)
Pages: 25-40

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Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:55:y:2005:i:1-2:p:25-40

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Related research

Keywords: forward-looking expectations; maximum-likelihood methods; non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment; time-varying NAIRU;

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References

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  1. Vladimir Bezdek & Kamil Dybczak & Ales Krejdl, 2003. "Czech Fiscal Policy: Introductory Analysis," Working Papers 2003/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Unit Root Tests and the Burden of Proof," Econometrics 9502005, EconWPA.
  3. Rebecca L Driver & Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse, 2003. "The role of expectations in estimates of the NAIRU in the United States and the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 180, Bank of England.
  4. Wolfgang Franz, 2005. "Will the (German) NAIRU Please Stand Up?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 131-153, 05.
  5. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
  6. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 1-60.
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Cited by:
  1. Daniela Milučká, 2014. "Inflation dynamics in the Czech Republic: Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," International Journal of Economic Sciences, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(2), pages 53-70.

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