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Labor-Market Performance and Macroeconomic Policy: Time-Varying NAIRU in the Czech Republic (in English)

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Author Info
Jaromír Hurník () (Czech National Bank, Prague)
David Navrátil () (Česká spořitelna, Prague)

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Abstract

During the second half of the 1990s, the Czech economy experienced a sharp increase in the unemployment rate. The authors attempt to determine whether this was caused by structural changes, worsening labor-market performance, or by the changing business-cycle position. This has direct implications for both monetary and fiscal policy. The authors use NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) estimates using time-varying NAIRU. The estimates indicate that the NAIRU increased between 1996 and 2002 by approximately 1.5 percent. Estimated increases in the NAIRU can be associated with the worsening of labor-market efficiency.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 55 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (January)
Pages: 25-40
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:55:y:2005:i:1-2:p:25-40

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Related research
Keywords: forward-looking expectations; maximum-likelihood methods; non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment; time-varying NAIRU;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Rebecca L Driver & Jennifer V Greenslade & Richard G Pierse, . "The role of expectations in estimates of the NAIRU in the United States and the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 180, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. George A. Akerlof & William T. Dickens & George L. Perry, 2000. "Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2000-1), pages 1-60. [Downloadable!]
  3. Vladimir Bezdek & Kamil Dybczak & Ales Krejdl, 2003. "Czech Fiscal Policy: Introductory Analysis," Working Papers 2003/07, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Unit Root Tests and the Burden of Proof," Econometrics 9502005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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