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Evaluation of Dutch Election Programs. The Impact of Parameter Uncertainty

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  • J. Knoben
  • M. Kerkhofs
  • J. Graafland

Abstract

Shortly before the national elections in the Netherlands, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) evaluates the economic effects of the policy proposals in election programs. This paper investigates the sensitivity of this analysis to the uncertainty of parameter estimates in the economic models that are used. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo analysis of five election programs is performed, using a core version of one of the CPB models. It can be concluded that the range of projected outcomes is surprisingly small. Nonetheless, caution remains needed, especially when the estimated effects of different parties are roughly similar.

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File URL: http://www.econ.kuleuven.be/tem/jaargangen/2001-2010/2006/TEM%202006-1/TEM_2006-1_03_Knoben.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfswetenschappen in its journal Review of Business and Economics.

Volume (Year): LI (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 47-74

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Handle: RePEc:ete:revbec:20060103

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Web page: http://www.econ.kuleuven.be
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Related research

Keywords: Parameter uncertainty; policy evaluation; general equilibrium models; election programs;

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  1. Draper, D.A.G., 2000. "Towards an econometric model for the Netherlands: Explaining unemployment," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-84090, Tilburg University.
  2. Bovenberg, A.L. & Graafland, J.J. & Mooij, R.A. de, 2000. "Tax reform and the Dutch labour market: An applied general equilibrium approach," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-83974, Tilburg University.
  3. Graafland, J.J. & Huizinga, F.H., 1998. "Taxes and benefits in a non-linear wage equation," MPRA Paper 21076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Donders, Jan & Graafland, Johan, 1998. "CPB models and employment policy in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 341-356, July.
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