Evaluation of Dutch Election Programs. The Impact of Parameter Uncertainty
AbstractShortly before the national elections in the Netherlands, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) evaluates the economic effects of the policy proposals in election programs. This paper investigates the sensitivity of this analysis to the uncertainty of parameter estimates in the economic models that are used. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo analysis of five election programs is performed, using a core version of one of the CPB models. It can be concluded that the range of projected outcomes is surprisingly small. Nonetheless, caution remains needed, especially when the estimated effects of different parties are roughly similar.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfswetenschappen in its journal Review of Business and Economics.
Volume (Year): LI (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Parameter uncertainty; policy evaluation; general equilibrium models; election programs;
Other versions of this item:
- Knoben, J. & Kerkhofs, M. & Graafland, J.J., 2004. "Evaluation of Dutch election programs: The impact of parameter uncertainty," MPRA Paper 20773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Draper, D.A.G., 2000. "Towards an econometric model for the Netherlands: Explaining unemployment," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-84090, Tilburg University.
- Bovenberg, A.L. & Graafland, J.J. & Mooij, R.A. de, 2000.
"Tax reform and the Dutch labour market: An applied general equilibrium approach,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-83974, Tilburg University.
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- A. Lans Bovenberg & Johan J. Graafland & Ruud A. de Mooij, 1998. "Tax Reform and the Dutch Labor Market: An Applied General Equilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 6693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bovenberg, A Lans & de Mooij, Ruud A & Graafland, Johan J, 1998. "Tax Reform and the Dutch Labour Market: An Applied General Equilibrium Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 1983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Graafland, J.J. & Huizinga, F.H., 1998. "Taxes and benefits in a non-linear wage equation," MPRA Paper 21076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Donders, Jan & Graafland, Johan, 1998. "CPB models and employment policy in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 341-356, July.
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