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The Problem of Determining the Energy Mix: from the Portfolio Theory to the Reality of Energy Planning in the Spanish Case

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando de Llano Paz
  • Anxo Calvo Silvosa
  • Martín Portos García

Abstract

This paper deals with the problem of defining efficient portfolios of electricity production assets using the Portfolio Theory, that is to say, by applying the return-risk analysis not to a single asset (e.g. a power station, a wind farm, a combined cycle gas plant), but to the set of technologies operating in a territory at a definite time. First of all, we study to what extent this methodological approach can be implemented to solve the problem of defining efficient sets of power production technologies, considering the fact that the Portfolio Theory was initially proposed in the field of financial investment. We focus on the main concepts of this framework (return, risk and diversification) and its uses in the energy mix context. Second, the evolution of the Spanish generation mix during the ten year period 2001-2010 is analysed according to two different variables: capacity and produced energy. Furthermore, we pay attention to the Spanish Government 2020 energy planning and compare it with several scenarios suggested using different patterns observed during 2001-2010 period. Finally, the most important conclusions are drawn and some lines of future research are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando de Llano Paz & Anxo Calvo Silvosa & Martín Portos García, 2012. "The Problem of Determining the Energy Mix: from the Portfolio Theory to the Reality of Energy Planning in the Spanish Case," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 3-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xv:y:2012:i:4:p:3-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Awerbuch, Shimon & Yang, Spencer, 2007. "Efficient electricity generating portfolios for Europe: maximising energy security and climate change mitigation," EIB Papers 7/2007, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    2. Muñoz, José Ignacio & Sánchez de la Nieta, Agustín A. & Contreras, Javier & Bernal-Agustín, José L., 2009. "Optimal investment portfolio in renewable energy: The Spanish case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5273-5284, December.
    3. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    4. Bar-Lev, Dan & Katz, Steven, 1976. "A Portfolio Approach to Fossil Fuel Procurement in the Electric Utility Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 933-947, June.
    5. Boris Krey & Peter Zweifel, 2006. "Efficient Electricity Portfolios for Switzerland and the United States," SOI - Working Papers 0602, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    2. Kim, Yeong Jae & Cho, Seong-Hoon & Sharma, Bijay P., 2021. "Constructing efficient portfolios of low-carbon technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    3. Ilka Deluque & Ekundayo Shittu & Jonathan Deason, 2018. "Evaluating the reliability of efficient energy technology portfolios," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 115-138, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy; Portfolio; Energy Production; Investment Diversification; Security of Supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • L43 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - Legal Monopolies and Regulation or Deregulation
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods

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