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Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization of Onshore Wind Power Plants

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Author Info

  • Madlener, Reinhard

    ()
    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), RWTH Aachen University)

  • Glensk, Barbara

    ()
    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), RWTH Aachen University)

  • Weber, Veronika

    ()
    (RWTH Aachen University)

Abstract

In this paper we apply fuzzy sets theory to the portfolio optimization of power generation assets, using a semi-mean absolute deviation (SMAD) model as a benchmark and a fuzzy semi-mean absolute deviation (FSMAD) model for comparison. The two models are applied to five onshore wind power plants in Germany considered for the portfolio analysis. The results show that the selection of favorable assets for efficient portfolios is very similar, although the portfolio shares are markedly different. Also, the return and risk span of the SMAD model is much broader than that of the FSMAD model. The highest returns are generated by portfolios based on the FSMAD model. The FSMAD model offers less portfolio choices, thus facilitating the decision-making. This is in compliance with the notion that portfolio optimization by fuzzy sets theory is able to better account for the decision-maker’s preferences under real-world conditions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN) in its series FCN Working Papers with number 10/2011.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2011_010

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Related research

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation; Mean-variance portfolio analysis; Fuzzy set theory; Wind power;

References

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  1. Yusif Simaan, 1997. "Estimation Risk in Portfolio Selection: The Mean Variance Model Versus the Mean Absolute Deviation Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(10), pages 1437-1446, October.
  2. Hiroshi Konno & Hiroaki Yamazaki, 1991. "Mean-Absolute Deviation Portfolio Optimization Model and Its Applications to Tokyo Stock Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 519-531, May.
  3. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
  4. R. E. Bellman & L. A. Zadeh, 1970. "Decision-Making in a Fuzzy Environment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(4), pages B141-B164, December.
  5. Bar-Lev, Dan & Katz, Steven, 1976. "A Portfolio Approach to Fossil Fuel Procurement in the Electric Utility Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 933-47, June.
  6. Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2010. "Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization for Power Generation Assets," FCN Working Papers 10/2010, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  7. Himpler, Sebastian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Repowering of Wind Turbines: Economics and Optimal Timing," FCN Working Papers 19/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  8. Roques, Fabien & Hiroux, Céline & Saguan, Marcelo, 2010. "Optimal wind power deployment in Europe--A portfolio approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3245-3256, July.
  9. Boris Krey & Peter Zweifel, 2006. "Efficient Electricity Portfolios for Switzerland and the United States," SOI - Working Papers 0602, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  10. Srichander Ramaswamy, 1998. "Portfolio selection using fuzzy decision theory," BIS Working Papers 59, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Leon, T. & Liern, V. & Vercher, E., 2002. "Viability of infeasible portfolio selection problems: A fuzzy approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 178-189, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Multi-Commodity Real Options Analysis of Power Plant Investments: Discounting Endogenous Risk Structures," FCN Working Papers 22/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  2. Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Willingness-to-Pay for Alternative Fuel Vehicle Characteristics: A Stated Choice Study for Germany," FCN Working Papers 20/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  3. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Optimal Power Generation Investment: Impact of Technology Choices and Existing Portfolios for Deploying Low-Carbon Coal Technologies," FCN Working Papers 12/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  4. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Challenges in the Evaluation of Ultra-Long-Lived Projects: Risk Premia for Projects with Eternal Returns or Costs," FCN Working Papers 13/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  5. Sorda, Giovanni & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Cost-Effectiveness of Lignocellulose Biorefineries and their Impact on the Deciduous Wood Markets in Germany," FCN Working Papers 8/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  6. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein & Ghosh, Gaurav & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "The Impact of Green Framing on Consumers’ Valuations of Energy-Saving Measures," FCN Working Papers 7/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  7. Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein & Ghosh, Gaurav & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "An Evaluation of Attribute Anchoring Bias in a Choice Experimental Setting," FCN Working Papers 6/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  8. Michelsen , Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Switching from Fossil Fuel to Renewables in Residential Heating Systems: An Empirical Study of Homeowners’ Decisions in Germany," FCN Working Papers 14/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  9. Bruns, Stephan B. & Gross, Christian, 2013. "What if energy time series are not independent? Implications for energy-GDP causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 753-759.
  10. Achtnicht, Martin & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Factors influencing German house owners' preferences on energy retrofits," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-042, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  11. Rohlfs, Wilko & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Assessment of Clean-Coal Strategies: The Questionable Merits of Carbon Capture-Readiness," FCN Working Papers 18/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  12. Michelsen, Carl Christian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Homeowners' Motivation to Adopt a Residential Heating System: A Principal-Component Analysis," FCN Working Papers 17/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Jan 2013.
  13. Hackbarth, André & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Consumer Preferences for Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Discrete Choice Analysis," FCN Working Papers 20/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  14. Ghosh, Gaurav & Shortle, James, 2012. "Managing Pollution Risk through Emissions Trading," FCN Working Papers 1/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  15. Palmer, Johannes & Sorda, Giovanni & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Modeling the Diffusion of Residential Photovoltaic Systems in Italy: An Agent-based Simulation," FCN Working Papers 9/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  16. Kraas, Birk & Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion & Pulvermüller, Benedikt & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market," FCN Working Papers 12/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
  17. Dergiades, Theologos & Madlener, Reinhard & Christofidou, Georgia, 2012. "The Nexus between Natural Gas Spot and Futures Prices at NYMEX: Do Weather Shocks and Non-Linear Causality in Low Frequencies Matter?," FCN Working Papers 17/2012, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Sep 2013.

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