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Modelling the technical potential of bioelectricity production under land use constraints: A multi-region Brazil case study

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  • Lyrio de Oliveira, Lucas
  • García Kerdan, Iván
  • de Oliveira Ribeiro, Celma
  • Oller do Nascimento, Claudio Augusto
  • Rego, Erik Eduardo
  • Giarola, Sara
  • Hawkes, Adam

Abstract

In Brazil, bioelectricity generation from sugarcane bagasse and black liquor is regarded as a sustainable electricity supply option. However, questions regarding land use, investment decisions, and demand for paper, ethanol and sugar make its future role uncertain. The aim of this paper is to present a novel modelling framework based on a soft-link between a multi-sectoral Brazilian integrated assessment model (MUSE-Brazil) and an electricity portfolio optimisation model (EPOM). The proposed framework is capable of dynamically simulating sectoral electricity demand, regional bioenergy production under land use constraints and optimal power sector technological shares in each of the electricity subsystems. Considering Brazil under a 2 °C carbon budget, two scenarios based on economic attractiveness of producing second-generation ethanol have been investigated. Under the scenario where second-generation ethanol is not produced, outputs indicate that by 2050, Brazil would increase sugarcane and wood production by 68% and 49% respectively without causing direct or indirect deforestation. Agriculture intensification is evidenced as an alternative for reducing land use disruptions. Bioelectricity share is projected to remain around 9–10%. However, if second generation ethanol becomes cost-effective, thus limiting bagasse availability, the share of bioelectricity production would decrease to approximately 7.7%, with natural gas-fired plants playing a stronger role in the future power system expansion, causing an increase on electricity sector emissions.

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  • Lyrio de Oliveira, Lucas & García Kerdan, Iván & de Oliveira Ribeiro, Celma & Oller do Nascimento, Claudio Augusto & Rego, Erik Eduardo & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam, 2020. "Modelling the technical potential of bioelectricity production under land use constraints: A multi-region Brazil case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:123:y:2020:i:c:s1364032120300617
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2020.109765
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