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A load factor based mean-variance analysis for fuel diversification

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  • Gotham, Douglas
  • Muthuraman, Kumar
  • Preckel, Paul
  • Rardin, Ronald
  • Ruangpattana, Suriya
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    Abstract

    Fuel diversification implies the selection of a mix of generation technologies for long-term electricity generation. The goal is to strike a good balance between reduced costs and reduced risk. The method of analysis that has been advocated and adopted for such studies is the mean-variance portfolio analysis pioneered by Markowitz (Markowitz, H., 1952. Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance 7(1) 77-91). However the standard mean-variance methodology, does not account for the ability of various fuels/technologies to adapt to varying loads. Such analysis often provides results that are easily dismissed by regulators and practitioners as unacceptable, since load cycles play critical roles in fuel selection. To account for such issues and still retain the convenience and elegance of the mean-variance approach, we propose a variant of the mean-variance analysis using the decomposition of the load into various types and utilizing the load factors of each load type. We also illustrate the approach using data for the state of Indiana and demonstrate the ability of the model in providing useful insights.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (March)
    Pages: 249-256

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:31:y:2009:i:2:p:249-256

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

    Related research

    Keywords: Fuel diversity Mean variance Fuel selection Energy risk management Portfolio choice;

    References

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    1. Boris Krey & Peter Zweifel, 2006. "Efficient Electricity Portfolios for Switzerland and the United States," SOI - Working Papers 0602, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
    2. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
    3. H. Brett Humphreys & Katherine T. McClain, 1998. "Reducing the Impacts of Energy Price Volatility Through Dynamic Portfolio Selection," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 107-131.
    4. Shimon Awerbuch, 2006. "Portfolio-Based Electricity Generation Planning: Policy Implications For Renewables And Energy Security," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 693-710, May.
    5. Bar-Lev, Dan & Katz, Steven, 1976. "A Portfolio Approach to Fossil Fuel Procurement in the Electric Utility Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(3), pages 933-47, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Matthew Dornan & Frank Jotzo, 2012. "Renewable Technologies and Risk Mitigation in Small Island Developing States (SIDS): Fiji’s Electricity Sector," Development Policy Centre Discussion Papers 1213, Development Policy Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Delarue, Erik & De Jonghe, Cedric & Belmans, Ronnie & D'haeseleer, William, 2011. "Applying portfolio theory to the electricity sector: Energy versus power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 12-23, January.
    3. Chuang, Ming Chih & Ma, Hwong Wen, 2013. "Energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices—Taiwan energy supply structure case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 9-20.
    4. Gustavo A. Marrero & Luis A. Puch & Francisco Javier Ramos-Real, 2010. "Riesgo y costes medios en la generación de electricidad: diversificación e implicaciones de política energética," Economic Reports 13-2010, FEDEA.
    5. Lappi, Pauli & Ollikka, Kimmo & Ollikainen, Markku, 2010. "Optimal fuel-mix in CHP plants under a stochastic permit price: Risk-neutrality versus risk-aversion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 1079-1086, February.
    6. Ge, Fenglong & Fan, Ying, 2013. "Quantifying the risk to crude oil imports in China: An improved portfolio approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-80.
    7. Min, Daiki & Chung, Jaewoo, 2013. "Evaluation of the long-term power generation mix: The case study of South Korea's energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1544-1552.
    8. Sunderkötter, Malte & Weber, Christoph, 2012. "Valuing fuel diversification in power generation capacity planning," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1664-1674.

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