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Riesgo y costes medios en la generación de electricidad: diversificación e implicaciones de política energética

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  • Gustavo A. Marrero
  • Luis A. Puch
  • Francisco Javier Ramos-Real

Abstract

Buena parte del diseño de política energética actual se centra en el estudio individual de los costes de las diferentes opciones tecnológicas de generación de electricidad. En este artículo mostramos que el riesgo asociado a los costes de generación para las distintas tecnologías constituye una variable relevante en la valoración de la eficiencia del mix energético. Dicho riesgo se mide por la incertidumbre asociada a los distintos tipos de costes y la correlación entre ellos a través de las distintas tecnologías. Los resultados sugieren que una cartera eficiente supondría al menos una disminución del 2% en el coste medio, del 30% en el riesgo de costes y de un 17% en emisiones de CO2 respecto a cierta cartera representativa del mix energético europeo para los próximos años. La complementariedad de las energías renovables con las energías fósiles y la nuclear es crucial para poder alcanzar ganancias en las tres dimensiones anteriores. En particular, incorporar el riesgo de costes en el análisis hace compatible una reducción de las emisiones y unos menores costes de generación. Los resultados sugieren algunas reflexiones relevantes de política energética y medioambiental, relacionadas con el mercado de emisiones, los problemas de interrumpibilidad de las renovables y la necesidad de reducir el factor descuento de las tecnologías más intensivas en inversión inicial, que resultan ser las menos contaminantes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Economic Reports with number 13-2010.

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Date of creation: Sep 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdacee:13-2010

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  1. Awerbuch, Shimon & Yang, Spencer, 2007. "Efficient electricity generating portfolios for Europe: maximising energy security and climate change mitigation," EIB Papers 7/2007, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  2. Albrecht, Johan, 2007. "The future role of photovoltaics: A learning curve versus portfolio perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2296-2304, April.
  3. Marrero, Gustavo A. & Ramos-Real, Francisco Javier, 2010. "Electricity generation cost in isolated system: The complementarities of natural gas and renewables in the Canary Islands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 2808-2818, December.
  4. Gotham, Douglas & Muthuraman, Kumar & Preckel, Paul & Rardin, Ronald & Ruangpattana, Suriya, 2009. "A load factor based mean-variance analysis for fuel diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 249-256, March.
  5. Wiser, Ryan & Bachrach, Devra & Bolinger, Mark & Golove, William, 2004. "Comparing the risk profiles of renewable and natural gas-fired electricity contracts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 335-363, August.
  6. Feretic, Danilo & Tomsic, Zeljko, 2005. "Probabilistic analysis of electrical energy costs comparing: production costs for gas, coal and nuclear power plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-13, January.
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