Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Rational speculative bubbles in MENA stock markets


Author Info

  • Jung-Suk Yu
  • M. Kabir Hassan


Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the existence of rational speculative bubbles in the Middle East and North African (MENA) stock markets. Design/methodology/approach – To complement shortcomings of the traditional bubble tests, such as unit root tests and cointegration tests, mainly relying on expectations of future steams of dividends, the authors employ fractional integration tests and duration dependence tests. Findings – Despite recent extreme fluctuations of MENA stock markets, fractional integration tests built on autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average models do not support the possibility of bubbles in the MENA stock markets. Similarly, duration dependence tests based on nonparametric Nelson-Aalen hazard functions not only reject the existence of bubbles but also support equality of hazard functions between domestic and the US-based investors without regard to the rapid financial liberalization and integration in the MENA stock markets. Originality/value – The reliable results of bubble tests of the MENA stock markets provide domestic and international investors as well as policy makers with invaluable benchmark to better understand the irregular and highly fluctuating stock market behaviors of the MENA stock markets compared to other developed and emerging stock markets. For domestic and international investors, the formal analysis of MENA stock markets behavior including rational speculative bubbles will help them in their portfolio decisions and hedging purposes. Similarly, the empirical results of bubble tests in the paper will be also helpful to policymakers in MENA countries to take actions to improve the functioning of these dynamic markets.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL:
Download Restriction: Cannot be freely downloaded

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Studies in Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 27 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 247-264

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:27:y:2010:i:3:p:247-264

Contact details of provider:
Web page:

Order Information:
Postal: Emerald Group Publishing, Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley, BD16 1WA, UK

Related research

Keywords: Economic growth; Middle East; North Africa; Stock markets;


No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.


Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Deev, Oleg & Kajurova, Veronika & Stavarek, Daniel, 2013. "Testing rational speculative bubbles in Central European stock markets," MPRA Paper 46582, University Library of Munich, Germany.


This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


Access and download statistics


When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:27:y:2010:i:3:p:247-264. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Louise Lister).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.