Testing for stock market bubbles using nonlinear models and fractional integration
Abstract
In this article we test for bubbles in the S&P 500 stock market index using monthly data over the period 1871m1-2004m6. We use fractional integration techniques, allowing for structural breaks and a nonlinear adjustment process of prices to dividends. We find a significant structural break around 1932, a period in which the stock market began rising again after the market crash of 1929. Furthermore, we do not find evidence of asymmetric adjustment of prices to dividends when using both momentum-threshold autoregressive and threshold autoregressive models. Finally, we cannot reject the hypothesis of orders of integration equal to or higher than one and thus, we find support for the existence of bubbles in the S&P 500 stock market index.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.
Volume (Year): 17 (2007)
Issue (Month): 16 ()
Pages: 1313-1321
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Web page: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/routledge/09603107.html
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- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:115-129 is not listed on IDEAS
- Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2011.
"Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: does one size fit all?,"
Working Papers
halshs-00559170, HAL.
- Aloy, Marcel & Boutahar, Mohamed & Gente, Karine & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2011. "Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: Does one size fit all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1279-1290, May.
- Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2010.
"Fractional integration and cointegration in stock prices and exchange rates,"
Working Papers
halshs-00536140, HAL.
- Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Péguin-feissolle, 2010. "Fractional integration and cointegration in stock prices and exchange rates," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 115-129.
- Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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