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Infrastructure and productivity in Latin America: is there a relationship in the long run?

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Author Info

  • Vladimir Kühl Teles
  • Caio Cesar Mussolini

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between infrastructure and total factor productivity (TFP) in the four major Latin American economies: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. Design/methodology/approach – The authors hypothesise that an increase in infrastructure has an indirect effect on output by raising productivity. To assess this theory, the traditional Johansen methodology was used for testing the cointegration between TFP and physical measures of infrastructure stock, such as energy, roads, and telephones. The Lütkepohl, Saikkonen and Trenkler Test, which considers a possible level shift in the series and has better small sample properties, was applied to the same data set and the two tests were compared. Findings – The results do not support a robust long-term relationship between the series; the authors do not find strong evidence that cuts in infrastructure investment in some Latin American countries were the main reason for the fall in TFP during the 1970s and 1980s. Originality/value – The present paper addresses the empirical relationship between infrastructure and economic growth for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico between 1950 and 2000, using new time series econometric methods finding new evidences on this relationship.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Journal of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 39 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 44-62

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Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:39:y:2012:i:1:p:44-62

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Related research

Keywords: Argentina; Brazil; Chile; Cointegration; Economic growth; Fiscal policy; Infrastructure; Latin America; Mexico; Structural breaks; Total factor productivity;

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References

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  1. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "The tyranny of concepts - CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated Investment Effort) is NOT capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2341, The World Bank.
  2. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti & Trenkler, Carsten, 2001. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with level shift at unknown time," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,63, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  3. Pedro Cavalcanti Ferreira & Roberto Ellery Jr & Victor Gomes, 2005. "Produtividade Agregada Brasileira (1970-2000): Declínio Robusto E Fraca Recuperação," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 062, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  4. Durlauf, Steven N., 2001. "Manifesto for a growth econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 65-69, January.
  5. Röller, Lars-Hendrik & Waverman, Leonard, 2000. "Telecommunications Infrastructure And Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 2399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
  7. Helmut Luetkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen & Carsten Trenkler, 2000. "Comparison of Tests for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with a Structural Shift," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0364, Econometric Society.
  8. H. Lütkepohl & P. Saikkonen, 1997. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with a Time Trend," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1997,79, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  9. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti Gomes & Araújo, Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos, 2006. "On the Economic and Fiscal Effects of Infrastructure Investment in Brazil," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 613, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  10. Canning, David, 1998. "A Database of World Stocks of Infrastructure, 1950-95," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 529-47, September.
  11. Blanca Sanchez-Robles, 1998. "Infrastructure Investment And Growth: Some Empirical Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(1), pages 98-108, 01.
  12. John Fernald, 1997. "Roads to prosperity? assessing the link between public capital and productivity," International Finance Discussion Papers 592, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. David Aschauer, 1988. "Is public expenditure productive?," Staff Memoranda 88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  15. Esfahani, Hadi Salehi & Ramirez, Maria Teresa, 2003. "Institutions, infrastructure, and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 443-477, April.
  16. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-77, August.
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