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Evaluating agricultural catastrophic risk

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  • Lei Xu
  • Qiao Zhang
  • Xi Zhang
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    Abstract

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an evaluation method for agricultural catastrophic risk. Design/methodology/approach – Data on agricultural disaster loss are collected based on hectares covered by natural disasters, hectares affected by natural disasters, and hectares destroyed by natural disasters using the standard process. Peak over threshold (POT) approach based on the extreme value theory is used to model the distribution of agricultural catastrophic loss, and value at risk (VaR) is used to assess agricultural catastrophic risk. Findings – This paper provides an approach for collecting agricultural loss data and modelling probability distribution of agricultural catastrophic loss, which is promising for agricultural catastrophic risk evaluating. As the quantified measurement of agricultural catastrophic risk, VaR is observed to be appropriate and feasible. Results of empirical research demonstrate that drought catastrophe negatively affects grain-production in the northeast region of China; in particular, the drought catastrophic risk is severe within a 100-year scenario and thus is expected to recur. Originality/value – To provide an accurate agricultural catastrophic risk assessment, data collection based on disaster occurrence instead of crop yield, and VaR is used in this paper.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal China Agricultural Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 3 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 4 (November)
    Pages: 451-461

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    Handle: RePEc:eme:caerpp:v:3:y:2011:i:4:p:451-461

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    Related research

    Keywords: Agricultural catastrophe; Agricultural loss data; Agriculture; China; China; POT; Risk assessment; VaR;

    References

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    1. Zanini, Fabio C. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Irwin, Scott H., 2001. "Crop Insurance Valuation Under Alternative Yield Distributions," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18953, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    2. Barry K. Goodwin & Alan P. Ker, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Rating Group-Risk Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 139-153.
    3. Goodwin, Barry K. & Mahul, Olivier, 2004. "Risk modeling concepts relating to the design and rating of agricultural insurance contracts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3392, The World Bank.
    4. Joseph W. Glauber, 2004. "Crop Insurance Reconsidered," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1179-1195.
    5. Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
    6. Keith H. Coble & Thomas O. Knight & Rulon D. Pope & Jeffery R. Williams, 1996. "Modeling Farm-Level Crop Insurance Demand with Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 439-447.
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