Spatio-Temporal Modeling Of Agricultural Yield Data With An Application To Pricing Crop Insurance Contracts
AbstractThis article focuses on the modeling of agricultural yield data using hierarchical Bayesian models. In recovering the generating process of these data, we consider the temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal relationships pertinent to the prediction and pricing of insurance contracts based on regional crop yields. A county-average yield data set was analyzed for the State of Paraná, Brazil for the period of 1990 through 2002. The choice of the best model from among the several non-nested models considered was based on the posterior predictive criterion. The methodology used in this article proposes improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations of limited data. These conditions are frequently encountered, especially at the individual level.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI with number 19142.
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 555 East Wells Street, Suite 1100, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53202
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;
Other versions of this item:
- Vitor A. Ozaki & Sujit K. Ghosh & Barry K. Goodwin & Ricardo Shirota, 2008. "Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Agricultural Yield Data with an Application to Pricing Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 951-961.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zanini, Fabio C. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Irwin, Scott H., 2001.
"Crop Insurance Valuation Under Alternative Yield Distributions,"
2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri
18953, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Bruce J. Sherrick & Fabio C. Zanini & Gary D. Schnitkey & Scott H. Irwin, 2004. "Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(2), pages 406-419.
- Akerlof, George A, 1970. "The Market for 'Lemons': Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500, August.
- Alan P. Ker & Keith Coble, 2003. "Modeling Conditional Yield Densities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 291-304.
- Goodwin, Barry K. & Mahul, Olivier, 2004. "Risk modeling concepts relating to the design and rating of agricultural insurance contracts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3392, The World Bank.
- Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
- Barry K. Goodwin & Alan P. Ker, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Rating Group-Risk Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 139-153.
- Weninger, Quinn & Just, Richard E., 1999.
"Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?,"
Staff General Research Papers
5064, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Julian Besag & Jeremy York & Annie Mollié, 1991. "Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 1-20, March.
- Alan P. Ker & Barry K. Goodwin, 2000. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Insurance Rates Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 463-478.
- Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 630-49, November.
- Chen, Shu-Ling & Miranda, Mario J., 2006. "Modeling Yield Distribution In High Risk Counties: Application To Texas Upland Cotton," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21392, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Girante, Maria Joana & Goodwin, Barry K., 2009. "The Acreage and Borrowing Effects of Direct Payments Under Uncertainty: A Simulation Approach," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49349, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
- Bokusheva, Raushan & Breustedt, Gunnar, 0. "The Effectiveness of Weather-Based Index Insurance and Area-Yield Crop Insurance: How Reliable are ex post Predictions for Yield Risk Reduction?," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, vol. 51.
- Hennessy, David A., 2009.
"Crop Yield Skewness and the Normal Distribution,"
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(1), April.
- Chen, Shu-Ling & Miranda, Mario J., 2008. "Modeling Texas Dryland Cotton Yields, With Application to Crop Insurance Actuarial Rating," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(01), April.
- Maria Joana Girante & Barry K. Goodwin, 2009. "The Acreage and Borrowing Effects ok Direct Payments Under Uncertainty: A Simulation," NIPE Working Papers 14/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Awondo, Sebastain N. & Datta, Gauri S. & Ramirez, Octavio A. & Fonsah, Esendugue Greg, 2012. "Estimation of crop yield distribution and Insurance Premium using Shrinkage Estimator: A Hierarchical Bayes and Small Area Estimation Approach," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 126778, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.