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Spatio-Temporal Modeling Of Agricultural Yield Data With An Application To Pricing Crop Insurance Contracts

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  • Ozaki, Vitor Augusto
  • Ghosh, Sujit K.
  • Goodwin, Barry K.
  • Shirota, Ricardo

Abstract

This article focuses on the modeling of agricultural yield data using hierarchical Bayesian models. In recovering the generating process of these data, we consider the temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal relationships pertinent to the prediction and pricing of insurance contracts based on regional crop yields. A county-average yield data set was analyzed for the State of Paraná, Brazil for the period of 1990 through 2002. The choice of the best model from among the several non-nested models considered was based on the posterior predictive criterion. The methodology used in this article proposes improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations of limited data. These conditions are frequently encountered, especially at the individual level.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI with number 19142.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19142

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Keywords: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

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  1. Goodwin, Barry K. & Mahul, Olivier, 2004. "Risk modeling concepts relating to the design and rating of agricultural insurance contracts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3392, The World Bank.
  2. Alan P. Ker & Keith Coble, 2003. "Modeling Conditional Yield Densities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 291-304.
  3. Richard E. Just & Quinn Weninger, 1999. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 287-304.
  4. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets: An Essay on the Economics of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 630-49, November.
  5. Zanini, Fabio C. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Schnitkey, Gary D. & Irwin, Scott H., 2001. "Crop Insurance Valuation Under Alternative Yield Distributions," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18953, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  6. Alan P. Ker & Barry K. Goodwin, 2000. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Insurance Rates Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 463-478.
  7. Julian Besag & Jeremy York & Annie Mollié, 1991. "Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 1-20, March.
  8. Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
  9. Akerlof, George A, 1970. "The Market for 'Lemons': Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500, August.
  10. Barry K. Goodwin & Alan P. Ker, 1998. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Yield Distributions: Implications for Rating Group-Risk Crop Insurance Contracts," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 139-153.
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Cited by:
  1. Bokusheva, Raushan & Breustedt, Gunnar, 0. "The Effectiveness of Weather-Based Index Insurance and Area-Yield Crop Insurance: How Reliable are ex post Predictions for Yield Risk Reduction?," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, vol. 51.
  2. Awondo, Sebastain N. & Datta, Gauri S. & Ramirez, Octavio A. & Fonsah, Esendugue Greg, 2012. "Estimation of crop yield distribution and Insurance Premium using Shrinkage Estimator: A Hierarchical Bayes and Small Area Estimation Approach," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 126778, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  3. Chen, Shu-Ling & Miranda, Mario J., 2006. "Modeling Yield Distribution In High Risk Counties: Application To Texas Upland Cotton," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21392, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. Chen, Shu-Ling & Miranda, Mario J., 2008. "Modeling Texas Dryland Cotton Yields, With Application to Crop Insurance Actuarial Rating," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(01), April.
  5. Hennessy, David A., 2012. "Crop Yield Skewness and the Normal Distribution," Staff General Research Papers 35019, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Maria Joana Girante & Barry K. Goodwin, 2009. "The Acreage and Borrowing Effects ok Direct Payments Under Uncertainty: A Simulation," NIPE Working Papers 14/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  7. Girante, Maria Joana & Goodwin, Barry K., 2009. "The Acreage and Borrowing Effects of Direct Payments Under Uncertainty: A Simulation Approach," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49349, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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