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Impact of Rohingya refugees on food prices in Bangladesh: Evidence from a natural experiment

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  • Alam, Ashraful
  • Dutta, Indranil
  • Haque, M. Emranul
  • Nogales, Ricardo

Abstract

The Rohingya crisis is the fourth largest displacement of population in the world, with most refugees sheltering in neighbouring Bangladesh. We use this event as a natural experiment to examine the impact of the sudden influx of Rohingyas on food prices in the main host region of Bangladesh. We have pieced together a unique data set on food prices based on unpublished information at local government levels covering the pre- and post-influx period. We use a difference-in-difference approach to identify the impact of the refugee influx on the prices in the local area. Our baseline results indicate that overall food prices increased by 8 percent in the host sub-district of Ukhia, with prices of protein and vegetables increasing by 7 and 36 percent, respectively. For aid-supplied food products, such as cereals and lentils, we do find a statistically significant mitigating effect on prices. However, they were not substantial enough to reverse the increase in food prices.

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  • Alam, Ashraful & Dutta, Indranil & Haque, M. Emranul & Nogales, Ricardo, 2022. "Impact of Rohingya refugees on food prices in Bangladesh: Evidence from a natural experiment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:154:y:2022:i:c:s0305750x22000638
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.105873
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    1. Michael Christian Lehmann, 2023. "Macroeconomic volatility and anti‐refugee violence in developing countries: Evidence from commodity price shocks," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 992-1012, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bangladesh; Difference in difference; Food prices; Refugees; Rohingya;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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