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Impact of Rohingya Refugees on Food Prices in Bangladesh: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Ashraful Alam
  • Indranil Dutta
  • M. Emranul Haque
  • Ricardo Nogales

Abstract

The Rohingya crisis is the fourth largest displacement of population in the world, with most refugees sheltering in neighbouring Bangladesh. We use this event as a natural experiment to examine the impact of the sudden influx of Rohingyas on food prices in the main host region of Bangladesh. We have pieced together a unique data set on food prices based on unpublished information at local government levels covering the pre- and post-influx period. We use a difference-in-difference approach to identify the impact of the refugee influx on the prices in the local area. Our baseline results indicate that overall food prices increased by 8 percent in the host sub-district of Ukhia, with prices of protein and vegetables increasing by 7 and 36 percent, respectively. For aid-supplied food products, such as cereals and lentils, we do find a statistically significant mitigating effect on prices. However, they were not substantial enough to reverse the increase in food prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashraful Alam & Indranil Dutta & M. Emranul Haque & Ricardo Nogales, 2020. "Impact of Rohingya Refugees on Food Prices in Bangladesh: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2007, Economics, The University of Manchester, revised Apr 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:man:sespap:2007
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    Cited by:

    1. Masaki,Takaaki & Nega,Nitsuh Mengist & Christina Wieser, 2025. "Host Environments and Welfare of In-Camp Refugees : Evidence from Ethiopia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11108, The World Bank.
    2. Dahab Aglan, 2025. "The Nationwide Camp Closure Policy in Iraq and the Welfare of Displaced Populations," HiCN Working Papers 443, Households in Conflict Network.
    3. Rozo, Sandra & Urbina, María José & Wieser, Christina, 2025. "Beyond Camps and Communities : The Economics of Refugee Relocation in Bangladesh," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11204, The World Bank.
    4. Michael Christian Lehmann, 2023. "Macroeconomic volatility and anti‐refugee violence in developing countries: Evidence from commodity price shocks," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 992-1012, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H84 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Disaster Aid
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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