IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/touman/v45y2014icp159-170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling substitution between domestic and outbound tourism in Australia: A system-of-equations approach

Author

Listed:
  • Athanasopoulos, George
  • Deng, Minfeng
  • Li, Gang
  • Song, Haiyan

Abstract

This study uses a system-of-equations approach to model the substitution relationship between Australian domestic and outbound tourism demand. A new price variable based on relative ratios of purchasing power parity index is developed for the substitution analysis. Short-run demand elasticities are calculated based on the estimated error correction almost ideal demand systems. The empirical results reveal significant substitution relationships between Australian domestic tourism and outbound travel to Asia, the UK and the US. This study provides scientific support for necessary policy considerations to promote domestic tourism further.

Suggested Citation

  • Athanasopoulos, George & Deng, Minfeng & Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan, 2014. "Modelling substitution between domestic and outbound tourism in Australia: A system-of-equations approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 159-170.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:159-170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2014.03.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517714000740
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tourman.2014.03.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Crouch, Geoffrey I. & Ritchie, J. R. Brent, 1999. "Tourism, Competitiveness, and Societal Prosperity," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 137-152, March.
    2. Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F., 2006. "Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 57-71.
    3. Maria De Mello & Alan Pack & M. Thea Sinclair, 2002. "A system of equations model of UK tourism demand in neighbouring countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 509-521.
    4. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    5. Neelu Seetaram, 2012. "Estimating Demand Elasticities for Australia's International Outbound Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 999-1017, October.
    6. Sarath Divisekera, 2010. "Economics of Leisure and Non-Leisure Tourist Demand: A Study of Domestic Demand for Australian Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 117-136, March.
    7. Anderson, G J & Blundell, R W, 1982. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Dynamic Singular Equation Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1559-1571, November.
    8. Panayiota Lyssiotou, 2000. "Dynamic analysis of British demand for tourism abroad," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 421-436.
    9. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011. "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844, July.
    10. Haiyan Song & Gang Li & Stephen F. Witt & Baogang Fei, 2010. "Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: How Should Demand Be Measured?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 63-81, March.
    11. Juan Eugenio-Martin & Juan Campos-Soria, 2011. "Income and the substitution pattern between domestic and international tourism demand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2519-2531.
    12. Gordon Anderson & Richard Blundell, 1983. "Testing Restrictions in a Flexible Dynamic Demand System: An Application to Consumers' Expenditure in Canada," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 50(3), pages 397-410.
    13. Yap, Ghialy & Allen, David, 2011. "Investigating other leading indicators influencing Australian domestic tourism demand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1365-1374.
    14. Andreas Papatheodorou, 1999. "The demand for international tourism in the Mediterranean region," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 619-630.
    15. Jae H. Kim & Monique T. Ngo, 2001. "Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Airline Passenger Flows among Three Major Australian Cities," Tourism Economics, , vol. 7(4), pages 397-412, December.
    16. van Soest, Arthur & Kooreman, Peter, 1987. "A Micro-econometric Analysis of Vacation Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 215-226, July.
    17. Duffy, Martyn, 2003. "Advertising and food, drink and tobacco consumption in the United Kingdom: a dynamic demand system," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 51-70, January.
    18. Allen, David & Yap, Ghialy & Shareef, Riaz, 2009. "Modelling interstate tourism demand in Australia: A cointegration approach," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2733-2740.
    19. Marcus Chambers & K. Ben Nowman, 1997. "Forecasting with the almost ideal demand system: evidence from some alternative dynamic specifications," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 935-943.
    20. Angus Deaton & Alan Heston, 2010. "Understanding PPPs and PPP-Based National Accounts," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 1-35, October.
    21. Maria M. De Mello & Natércia Fortuna, 2005. "Testing Alternative Dynamic Systems for Modelling Tourism Demand," CEF.UP Working Papers 0501, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    22. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    23. Deng, Minfeng & Athanasopoulos, George, 2011. "Modelling Australian domestic and international inbound travel: a spatial–temporal approach," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1075-1084.
    24. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    25. Richard A. Holmes & Abul F. M. Shamsuddin, 1997. "Short- and Long-Term Effects of World Exposition 1986 on US Demand for British Columbia Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 3(2), pages 137-160, June.
    26. Maria M. De Mello & Natércia Fortuna, 2005. "Testing Alternative Dynamic Systems for Modelling Tourism Demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 517-537, December.
    27. Crouch, Geoffrey I., 1996. "Demand elasticities in international marketing : A meta-analytical application to tourism," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 117-136, June.
    28. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    29. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-476, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lei Qin & Eddy S. Fang & Ivan Ka Wai Lai & Syed Kanwar Abbas, 2023. "Cultural Distance and Chinese Outbound Tourism: Exploring the Moderating Effect of Geographical Distance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-18, January.
    2. Seetaram, Neelu & Forsyth, Peter & Dwyer, Larry, 2016. "Measuring price elasticities of demand for outbound tourism using competitiveness indices," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 65-79.
    3. Deely, John & Hynes, Stephen & Cawley, Mary & Hogan, Sarah, 2023. "Modelling domestic marine and coastal tourism demand using logit and travel cost count models," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 123-136.
    4. Viktorija Grigaliūnait&# & Lina Pilelien&#, 2023. "Effective Domestic Tourism Advertising Layout: Lithuanian Perspective," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(5), pages 93-116.
    5. Christian Stettler, 2017. "How do Overnight Stays React to Exchange Rate Changes?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(2), pages 123-165, April.
    6. Davison, Lisa & Ryley, Tim, 2016. "An examination of the role of domestic destinations in satisfying holiday demands," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 77-84.
    7. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Binh Quang Nguyen, 2023. "Does the shadow economy matter for tourism consumption? New global evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 729-773, August.
    8. Canh P Nguyen, 2023. "Last chance to travel or safety first? The influence of exposure to natural hazards and coping capacities on tourism consumption," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(4), pages 952-985, June.
    9. Olya, Hossein GT & Mehran, Javaneh, 2017. "Modelling tourism expenditure using complexity theory," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 147-158.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan & Cao, Zheng & Wu, Doris Chenguang, 2013. "How competitive is Hong Kong against its competitors? An econometric study," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 247-256.
    2. Saayman, Andrea & Viljoen, Armand & Saayman, Melville, 2018. "Africa’s outbound tourism: An Almost Ideal Demand System perspective," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 141-158.
    3. Peng, Bo & Song, Haiyan & Crouch, Geoffrey I., 2014. "A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 181-193.
    4. Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F., 2006. "Time varying parameter and fixed parameter linear AIDS: An application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 57-71.
    5. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia," Working Papers in Economics 10/11, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    6. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
    7. Maria M. De Mello & Natércia Fortuna, 2005. "Testing Alternative Dynamic Systems for Modelling Tourism Demand," CEF.UP Working Papers 0501, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    8. David Aristei & Luca Pieroni, 2005. "Estimating the Role of Government Expenditure in Long-run Consumption," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 13/2005, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia.
    9. Massidda, Carla & Piras, Romano & Seetaram, Neelu, 2020. "A Microeconomics Analysis of the Per Diem Expenditure of British Travellers," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Jian-Wu Bi & Tian-Yu Han & Hui Li, 2022. "International tourism demand forecasting with machine learning models: The power of the number of lagged inputs," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 621-645, May.
    11. D. Aristei & Luca Pieroni, 2008. "Cointegration Rank Test and Long Run Specification: A Note on the Robustness of Structural Demand Systems," Working Papers 0809, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    12. Coshall, John T. & Charlesworth, Richard, 2011. "A management orientated approach to combination forecasting of tourism demand," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 759-769.
    13. Massimo Gerli & Giovanni Marini, 2006. "Spatial and Temporal Time Series Conversion: A Consistent Estimator of the Error Variance-Covariance Matrix," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 373-405.
    14. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2002. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 49-87.
    15. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
    16. Vosen, Simeon & Schmidt, Torsten, 2012. "A monthly consumption indicator for Germany based on Internet search query data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 19(7), pages 683-687.
    17. Kim Abildgren, 2016. "A century of macro-financial linkages," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(4), pages 458-471, November.
    18. Tommaso Proietti, 2006. "Temporal disaggregation by state space methods: Dynamic regression methods revisited," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 357-372, November.
    19. Richard M. Todd, 1988. "Implementing Bayesian vector autoregressions," Working Papers 384, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    20. Nijman, Theo E & Palm, Franz C, 1990. "Predictive Accuracy Gain from Disaggregate Sampling in ARIMA Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(4), pages 405-415, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:touman:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:159-170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/tourism-management .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.