Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Modelling Australian Domestic and International Inbound Travel: a Spatial-Temporal Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Minfeng Deng

    ()

  • George Athanasopoulos

    ()

Abstract

In this paper Australian domestic and international inbound travel are modelled by an anisotropic dynamic spatial lag panel Origin-Destination (OD) travel flow model. Spatial OD travel flow models have traditionally been applied in a single cross-sectional context, where the spatial structure is assumed to have reached its long run equilibrium and temporal dynamics are not explicitly considered. On the other hand, spatial effects are rarely accounted for in traditional tourism demand modelling. We attempt to address this dichotomy between spatial modelling and time series modelling in tourism research by using a spatial-temporal model. In particular, tourism behaviour is modelled as travel flows between regions. Temporal dependencies are accounted for via the inclusion of autoregressive components, while spatial autocorrelations are explicitly accounted for at both the origin and the destination. We allow the strength of spatial autocorrelation to exhibit seasonal variations, and we allow for the possibility of asymmetry between capital-city neighbours and non-capital-city neighbours. Significant spatial dynamics have been uncovered, which lead to some interesting policy implications.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2009/wp10-09.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 10/09.

as in new window
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 24 Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2009-10

Contact details of provider:
Postal: PO Box 11E, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Phone: +61-3-9905-2489
Fax: +61-3-9905-5474
Email:
Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/pubs/wpapers/

Related research

Keywords: Tourism demand; Dynamic panel models; Travel flow model.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Athanasopoulos, George & Ahmed, Roman A. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2009. "Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 146-166.
  2. Elhorst, J. Paul, 2003. "Unconditional maximum likelihood estimation of dynamic models for spatial panels," Research Report 03C27, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  3. A. Porojan, 2001. "Trade Flows and Spatial Effects: The Gravity Model Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 265-280, July.
  4. Hsiao, Cheng & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Kamil Tahmiscioglu, A., 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects dynamic panel data models covering short time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 107-150, July.
  5. George Athanasopoulos & Rob J. Hyndman, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting Australian domestic tourism," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  6. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. Bolduc, D. & Dagenais, M.G. & Gaudry, M.J.I., 1988. "Spatially Autocorrected Errors in Origin-Destination Models a New Specification Applied to Aggregate Mode Choice," Cahiers de recherche 8811, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Yu, Jihai & de Jong, Robert & Lee, Lung-fei, 2008. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for spatial dynamic panel data with fixed effects when both n and T are large," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 118-134, September.
  9. Bhargava, Alok & Sargan, J D, 1983. "Estimating Dynamic Random Effects Models from Panel Data Covering Short Time Periods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(6), pages 1635-59, November.
  10. James P. LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2008. "Spatial Econometric Modeling Of Origin-Destination Flows," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5), pages 941-967.
  11. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  12. Bolduc, Denis & Laferriere, Richard & Santarossa, Gino, 1992. "Spatial autoregressive error components in travel flow models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 371-385, September.
  13. Baltagi, Badi H. & Song, Seuck Heun & Koh, Won, 2003. "Testing panel data regression models with spatial error correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 123-150, November.
  14. Michael Beenstock & Daniel Felsenstein, 2007. "Spatial Vector Autoregressions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 167-196.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2009-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simone Grose).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.