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Homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models: Algerian natural gas production

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  • Guseo, Renato
  • Mortarino, Cinzia
  • Darda, Md Abud

Abstract

Similar to other non-renewable resources, different options for natural gas production in wide geographic areas may be described through diffusion of innovation models. They provide an indirect estimate of an ultimately recoverable resource, URR, capture the quantitative effects of observed strategic interventions, and allow ex ante assessments of future scenarios over time. The present study offers a framework for systematizing the historical production of conventional Algerian natural gas contrasting homogeneity versus latent heterogeneity hypotheses of the agents involved in extraction dynamics. New models are proposed, and their comparative performances are discussed. In particular, diffusion models with latent heterogeneity of the agents perform better. Our results show a decreasing trend in conventional Algerian natural gas production, which is in agreement with recent published results. Some differences refer to lower URR estimates.

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  • Guseo, Renato & Mortarino, Cinzia & Darda, Md Abud, 2015. "Homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models: Algerian natural gas production," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 366-378.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:90:y:2015:i:pb:p:366-378
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.05.011
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    3. Berk, Istemi & Ediger, Volkan Ş., 2016. "Forecasting the coal production: Hubbert curve application on Turkey's lignite fields," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 193-203.
    4. Bey, M. & Hamidat, A. & Benyoucef, B. & Nacer, T., 2016. "Viability study of the use of grid connected photovoltaic system in agriculture: Case of Algerian dairy farms," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 333-345.
    5. Darda, Md Abud & Guseo, Renato & Mortarino, Cinzia, 2015. "Nonlinear production path and an alternative reserves estimate for South Asian natural gas," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 654-664.
    6. Ediger, Volkan Ş. & Berk, Istemi, 2023. "Future availability of natural gas: Can it support sustainable energy transition?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

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