IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v151y2020ics0040162518308783.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Low carbon transitions pathways in mobility: Applying the MLP in a combined case study and simulation bridging analysis of passenger transport in the Netherlands

Author

Listed:
  • Köhler, Jonathan
  • Turnheim, Bruno
  • Hodson, Mike

Abstract

The analysis addresses two critical gaps in the literature on low-carbon mobility transitions: 1) scenarios of low-carbon mobility concentrate on technological substitution and have only a limited representation of niche-regime interactions and behavioural change, and 2) detailed qualitative analysis of socio-technical transitions dynamics have limited utility in developing future projections. It applies the Multi-Level Perspective on transitions, combining case studies of mobility niches in the Netherlands with simulations of transitions pathways using the MATISSE model, by applying the bridging approach proposed by Turnheim et al. (2015a). The iterative, combined qualitative case study and quantitative simulation approach develops transition pathways including both behavioural and technological change.

Suggested Citation

  • Köhler, Jonathan & Turnheim, Bruno & Hodson, Mike, 2020. "Low carbon transitions pathways in mobility: Applying the MLP in a combined case study and simulation bridging analysis of passenger transport in the Netherlands," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:151:y:2020:i:c:s0040162518308783
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.06.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162518308783
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.06.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Smith, Adrian & Raven, Rob, 2012. "What is protective space? Reconsidering niches in transitions to sustainability," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1025-1036.
    2. Köhler, Jonathan & Whitmarsh, Lorraine & Nykvist, Björn & Schilperoord, Michel & Bergman, Noam & Haxeltine, Alex, 2009. "A transitions model for sustainable mobility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2985-2995, October.
    3. Geels, Frank W. & Schot, Johan, 2007. "Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-417, April.
    4. Noam Bergman & Alex Haxeltine & Lorraine Whitmarsh & Jonathan Köhler & Michel Schilperoord & Jan Rotmans, 2008. "Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(3), pages 1-7.
    5. Geels, Frank W., 2002. "Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1257-1274, December.
    6. Jonathan Köhler & Fjalar de Haan & Georg Holtz & Klaus Kubeczko & Enayat Moallemi & George Papachristos & Emile Chappin, 2018. "Modelling Sustainability Transitions: An Assessment of Approaches and Challenges," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 21(1), pages 1-8.
    7. David Banister & Philippe Crist & Stephen Perkins, 2015. "Land Transport and How to Unlock Investment in Support of “Green Growth”," OECD Green Growth Papers 2015/1, OECD Publishing.
    8. Smith, Adrian & Stirling, Andy & Berkhout, Frans, 2005. "The governance of sustainable socio-technical transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1491-1510, December.
    9. Laver, Michael, 2005. "Policy and the Dynamics of Political Competition," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-281, May.
    10. Safarzyńska, Karolina & Frenken, Koen & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Evolutionary theorizing and modeling of sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1011-1024.
    11. Foxon, Timothy J. & Pearson, Peter J.G. & Arapostathis, Stathis & Carlsson-Hyslop, Anna & Thornton, Judith, 2013. "Branching points for transition pathways: assessing responses of actors to challenges on pathways to a low carbon future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 146-158.
    12. Raven, Rob, 2007. "Niche accumulation and hybridisation strategies in transition processes towards a sustainable energy system: An assessment of differences and pitfalls," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2390-2400, April.
    13. Alex Haxeltine & Lorraine Whitmarsh & Noam Bergman & Jan Rotmans & Michel Schilperoord & Jonathan Kohler, 2008. "A Conceptual Framework for transition modelling," International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(1/2), pages 93-114.
    14. Banister, David, 2008. "The sustainable mobility paradigm," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 73-80, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ball, Christopher Stephen & Vögele, Stefan & Grajewski, Matthias & Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm, 2021. "E-mobility from a multi-actor point of view: Uncertainties and their impacts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    2. Mehdizadeh, Milad & Nordfjaern, Trond & Klöckner, Christian A., 2022. "A systematic review of the agent-based modelling/simulation paradigm in mobility transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    3. Mohammed, Sayeed & Desha, Cheryl & Goonetilleke, Ashantha, 2022. "Investigating low-carbon pathways for hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states: Economic transition in Qatar," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    4. Ingunn Y. Gudbrandsdottir & Nína M. Saviolidis & Gudrun Olafsdottir & Gudmundur V. Oddsson & Hlynur Stefansson & Sigurdur G. Bogason, 2021. "Transition Pathways for the Farmed Salmon Value Chain: Industry Perspectives and Sustainability Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-23, November.
    5. Lovell, Katherine & Watson, Jim & Hiteva, Ralitsa, 2022. "Infrastructure decision-making: Opening up governance futures within techno-economic modelling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    6. Jing Gan & Linheng Li & Qiaojun Xiang & Bin Ran, 2020. "A Prediction Method of GHG Emissions for Urban Road Transportation Planning and Its Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Franziska Wiest & M. Gabriela Gamarra Scavone & Maya Tsuboya Newell & Ilona M. Otto & Andrew K. Ringsmuth, 2022. "Scaling Up Ecovillagers’ Lifestyles Can Help to Decarbonise Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    8. Fan, Ailong & Xiong, Yuqi & Yang, Liu & Zhang, Haiying & He, Yapeng, 2023. "Carbon footprint model and low–carbon pathway of inland shipping based on micro–macro analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    9. Mura, Matteo & Longo, Mariolina & Toschi, Laura & Zanni, Sara & Visani, Franco & Bianconcini, Silvia, 2021. "The role of geographical scales in sustainability transitions: An empirical investigation of the European industrial context," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    10. Bjerkan, Kristin Ystmark & Ryghaug, Marianne, 2021. "Diverging pathways to port sustainability: How social processes shape and direct transition work," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    11. Sina Shokoohyar & Amirsalar Jafari Gorizi & Vahid Ghomi & Weimin Liang & Hak J. Kim, 2022. "Sustainable Transportation in Practice: A Systematic Quantitative Review of Case Studies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, February.
    12. Zishuo Huang & Yingfang Liu & Jing Gao & Zhenwei Peng, 2022. "Approach for Village Carbon Emissions Index and Planning Strategies Generation Based on Two-Stage Optimization Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-20, April.
    13. Wu, Zhanglan & Shao, Qinglong & Su, Yantao & Zhang, Dan, 2021. "A socio-technical transition path for new energy vehicles in China: A multi-level perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    14. Remme, Devyn & Sareen, Siddharth & Haarstad, Håvard, 2022. "Who benefits from sustainable mobility transitions? Social inclusion, populist resistance and elite capture in Bergen, Norway," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    15. Cheng Wang & Tao Lv & Rongjiang Cai & Jianfeng Xu & Liya Wang, 2022. "Bibliometric Analysis of Multi-Level Perspective on Sustainability Transition Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-31, March.
    16. Edler, Jakob & Köhler, Jonathan Hugh & Wydra, Sven & Salas-Gironés, Edgar & Schiller, Katharina & Braun, Annette, 2021. "Dimensions of systems and transformations: Towards an integrated framework for system transformations," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S03/2021, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    17. Johanna Leväsluoto & Johanna Kohl & Anton Sigfrids & Jussi Pihlajamäki & Janne Martikainen, 2021. "Digitalization as an Engine for Change? Building a Vision Pathway towards a Sustainable Health Care System by Using the MLP and Health Economic Decision Modelling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-24, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Walrave, Bob & Raven, Rob, 2016. "Modelling the dynamics of technological innovation systems," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1833-1844.
    2. Turnheim, Bruno & Nykvist, Björn, 2019. "Opening up the feasibility of sustainability transitions pathways (STPs): Representations, potentials, and conditions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 775-788.
    3. Canitez, Fatih, 2019. "Pathways to sustainable urban mobility in developing megacities: A socio-technical transition perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 319-329.
    4. Lopolito, A. & Morone, P. & Taylor, R., 2013. "Emerging innovation niches: An agent based model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1225-1238.
    5. Pieter Valkering & Gönenç Yücel & Ernst Gebetsroither-Geringer & Karin Markvica & Erika Meynaerts & Niki Frantzeskaki, 2017. "Accelerating Transition Dynamics in City Regions: A Qualitative Modeling Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-20, July.
    6. Safarzyńska, Karolina & Frenken, Koen & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Evolutionary theorizing and modeling of sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1011-1024.
    7. Lee, Junmin & Kim, Keungoui & Kim, Jiyong & Hwang, Junseok, 2022. "The relationship between shared mobility and regulation in South Korea: A system dynamics approach from the socio-technical transitions perspective," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    9. Fjalar J. De Haan & Briony C. Rogers, 2019. "The Multi-Pattern Approach for Systematic Analysis of Transition Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-30, January.
    10. Attila Havas & Doris Schartinger & K. Matthias Weber, 2022. "Innovation Studies, Social Innovation, and Sustainability Transitions Research: From mutual ignorance towards an integrative perspective?," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2227, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    11. Pesch, Udo, 2015. "Tracing discursive space: Agency and change in sustainability transitions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 379-388.
    12. Nilsson, Måns & Nykvist, Björn, 2016. "Governing the electric vehicle transition – Near term interventions to support a green energy economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1360-1371.
    13. G. Marletto, 2013. "Car and the city: Socio-technical pathways to 2030," Working Paper CRENoS 201306, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    14. Rosenbloom, Daniel & Berton, Harris & Meadowcroft, James, 2016. "Framing the sun: A discursive approach to understanding multi-dimensional interactions within socio-technical transitions through the case of solar electricity in Ontario, Canada," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1275-1290.
    15. Marletto, Gerardo, 2019. "Who will drive the transition to self-driving? A socio-technical analysis of the future impact of automated vehicles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 221-234.
    16. Nihit Goyal & Michael Howlett, 2018. "Technology and Instrument Constituencies as Agents of Innovation: Sustainability Transitions and the Governance of Urban Transport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-14, May.
    17. Marletto, Gerardo, 2014. "Car and the city: Socio-technical transition pathways to 2030," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 164-178.
    18. Markard, Jochen & Raven, Rob & Truffer, Bernhard, 2012. "Sustainability transitions: An emerging field of research and its prospects," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 955-967.
    19. Filippo Celata & Venere Stefania sanna, "undated". "Community activism and sustainability: a multi-dimensional assessment," Working Papers 137/14, Sapienza University of Rome, Metodi e Modelli per l'Economia, il Territorio e la Finanza MEMOTEF.
    20. Mike Hodson & Frank W. Geels & Andy McMeekin, 2017. "Reconfiguring Urban Sustainability Transitions, Analysing Multiplicity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:151:y:2020:i:c:s0040162518308783. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.