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Aggregate sentiment dynamics: A canonical modelling approach and its pleasant nonlinearities

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  • Franke, Reiner

Abstract

The paper is an attempt at an alternative to the rational expectations assumption in macroeconomic modelling. Emphasizing the concept of sentiment in contrast to the expectations of a single selected variable, it is meant to take an important step forward towards a canonical heterodox framework for the microfounded modelling of irreducible uncertainty and, specifically, herding. Referring to a large population of agents who repeatedly face a binary decision problem, two stylized approaches are considered to describe the aggregate sentiment dynamics: the transition probability and the discrete choice approach. After a slight modification of the latter, the two specifications are shown to give rise to essentially the same adjustment equations. In addition to these conceptual issues, a two-dimensional prototype model is put forward which can illustrate the rich potential of an inherent nonlinearity to generate scenarios with single and multiple (point and set) attractors.

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  • Franke, Reiner, 2014. "Aggregate sentiment dynamics: A canonical modelling approach and its pleasant nonlinearities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 64-72.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:31:y:2014:i:c:p:64-72
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2014.08.001
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    2. Dimitri Kroujiline & Maxim Gusev & Dmitry Ushanov & Sergey V. Sharov & Boris Govorkov, 2015. "Forecasting stock market returns over multiple time horizons," Papers 1508.04332, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    3. Reiner Franke & Frank Westerhoff, 2017. "Taking Stock: A Rigorous Modelling Of Animal Spirits In Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1152-1182, December.
    4. Datta, Bikramaditya & Sethi, Rajiv, 2023. "The dynamics of leverage and the belief distribution of wealth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 20-31.
    5. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2019. "Different compositions of aggregate sentiment and their impact on macroeconomic stability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 117-127.
    6. Murakami, Hiroki, 2020. "Monetary policy in the unique growth cycle of post Keynesian systems," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 39-49.
    7. Murakami, Hiroki, 2018. "Existence and uniqueness of growth cycles in post Keynesian systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 293-304.
    8. Flaschel, Peter & Charpe, Matthieu & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R. & Veneziani, Roberto, 2018. "Macroeconomic and stock market interactions with endogenous aggregate sentiment dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 237-256.
    9. Dieci, Roberto & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2018. "Interactions between stock, bond and housing markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 43-70.
    10. Greg Philip Hannsgen & Tai Young-Taft, 2021. "Expectational and Portfolio-Demand Shifts in a Keynesian Model of Monetary Growth Fluctuations," Working Papers PKWP2112, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    11. Dimitri Kroujiline & Maxim Gusev & Dmitry Ushanov & Sergey V. Sharov & Boris Govorkov, 2016. "Forecasting stock market returns over multiple time horizons," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1695-1712, November.
    12. Di Guilmi, Corrado & Galanis, Giorgos & Proaño, Christian R., 2023. "A Baseline Model of Behavioral Political Cycles and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 50-67.
    13. Kroujiline, Dimitri & Gusev, Maxim & Ushanov, Dmitry & Sharov, Sergey V. & Govorkov, Boris, 2015. "Forecasting stock market returns over multiple time horizons," MPRA Paper 66175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Bikramaditya Datta & Rajiv Sethi, 2023. "The Dynamics of Leverage and the Belief Distribution of Wealth," Papers 2304.03436, arXiv.org.
    15. Murakami, Hiroki & Zimka, Rudolf, 2020. "On dynamics in a two-sector Keynesian model of business cycles," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    16. Dimitri Kroujiline & Maxim Gusev & Dmitry Ushanov & Sergey V. Sharov & Boris Govorkov, 2018. "An Endogenous Mechanism of Business Cycles," Papers 1803.05002, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Logit dynamics; Herding; Microfounded animal spirits; Local and global bifurcations; Post-Keynesian modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D - Microeconomics
    • D - Microeconomics
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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