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Forecasting in efficient bond markets: Do experts know better?

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  • Baghestani, Hamid

Abstract

Term structure theory suggests that bond rates in efficient markets approximately follow a random walk. We show that the random walk forecasts of 10-year U.S. Treasury and Moody's Aaa corporate bond rates for 1988-2005 are generally unbiased. Blue Chip forecasts, however, are both biased and inferior to random walk forecasts. Both models produce unbiased forecasts of the default spread, with the random walk again outperforming the Blue Chip. In addition, Blue Chip fails to accurately predict directional change. Emphasizing that the success of the random walk model is theoretically expected, we discuss why experts fail to beat random walk predictions.

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  • Baghestani, Hamid, 2009. "Forecasting in efficient bond markets: Do experts know better?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 624-630, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:18:y:2009:i:4:p:624-630
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hamid Baghestani, 2022. "Mortgage rate predictability and consumer home-buying assessments," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(3), pages 593-603, July.
    2. van Ommeren, Bernard J.F. & Allers, Maarten A. & Vellekoop, Michel H., 2017. "Choosing the optimal moment to arrange a loan," Research Report 17007-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    3. Hamid Baghestani, 2017. "Do US consumer survey data help beat the random walk in forecasting mortgage rates?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1343017-134, January.

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