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Questioning the spatial association between the initial spread of COVID-19 and transit usage in Italy

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  • Borsati, Mattia
  • Nocera, Silvio
  • Percoco, Marco

Abstract

Within the much broader framework of global interest, the dilemma concerning the real impact of mode of transport on the spread of COVID-19 has been a priority for transport stakeholders and policy-makers. How dangerous is it to move around a certain territory? Does the danger depend on the mode of transport? By considering a novel and detailed dataset at the level of local labour markets, we analysed the spatial association between the pre-pandemic propensity to use public transport and excess mortality in Italy attributable to the initial spread of COVID-19. We found that places characterised by larger commuting flows exhibit higher excess mortality during the first wave of the pandemic, but observed no significant spatial association between excess mortality and transit usage. Our results were obtained by considering a wide range of heterogeneity in the estimation of quantile regressions across a variety of specifications. Although we do not provide a definitive answer concerning the risk associated with transit use, our analysis suggests that mobility, not modal choice, should be considered a main driver of the initial contagion.

Suggested Citation

  • Borsati, Mattia & Nocera, Silvio & Percoco, Marco, 2022. "Questioning the spatial association between the initial spread of COVID-19 and transit usage in Italy," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:95:y:2022:i:c:s0739885922000178
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2022.101194
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    Cited by:

    1. Zsigó, Zsanett, 2023. "Methodologies For Measuring Mobility In Covid-19 Research," Economic and Regional Studies (Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne), John Paul II University of Applied Sciences in Biala Podlaska, vol. 16(2), June.
    2. Rickie Mae Gaspar & Yogi Tri Prasetyo & Klint Allen Mariñas & Satria Fadil Persada & Reny Nadlifatin, 2023. "Exploring Consumers’ Intention to Use Bikes and E-Scooters during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Philippines: An Extended Theory of Planned Behavior Approach with a Consideration of Pro-Environmental Id," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    3. Zsigó Zsanett, 2023. "Methodologies for Measuring Mobility in Covid-19 Research," Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne, Sciendo, vol. 16(2), pages 186-202, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Public transport; Commuting; Quantile regression; Italy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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