IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v159y2022ics1364032122001137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electricity trading for coal-fired power plants in Turkish power market considering uncertainty in spot, derivatives and bilateral contract market

Author

Listed:
  • Yucekaya, A.

Abstract

In deregulated power markets, electricity suppliers have the option to trade in the spot market, derivatives market, and bilateral contract market. The spot market is always available and open to competition, but the variability and risk incurred need to be carefully handled. The suppliers might allocate their capacity in the derivatives and bilateral contract market if these alternatives are more viable. The strike price, bilateral contract price, and spot market prices need to be used to decide the capacity allocation problem considering the generation cost of the supplier. This paper first examines the market design and electricity trading in the Turkish electricity market. Then three problems were proposed for a coal-fired coal unit that aims to allocate its capacity to spot, derivative, and bilateral contract markets to maximize its expected profit. A Monte Carlo method is used for allocated electricity capacities, spot market, strike, and bilateral contract price scenarios. A simulation methodology is then proposed that includes capacities allocated to each market and price scenarios. The best capacity allocation strategy is determined that return the highest expected profits for all market price samples. The model is illustrated for a coal unit in the Turkish electricity market. The results are presented for the case, including 100 spot price samples, 100 capacity scenarios, 3 scenarios for the strike, and bilateral contract prices. The sensitivity analysis for spot price volatility on the profit is also presented with 20% volatility increase. It is shown that allocating the capacity to more than one market can increase the total expected profit for a power supplier and the rate of increase varies depending on the scenario set.

Suggested Citation

  • Yucekaya, A., 2022. "Electricity trading for coal-fired power plants in Turkish power market considering uncertainty in spot, derivatives and bilateral contract market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:159:y:2022:i:c:s1364032122001137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112189
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032122001137
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112189?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. E. J. Anderson & A. B. Philpott, 2002. "Using Supply Functions for Offering Generation into an Electricity Market," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 477-489, June.
    2. Markus Burger & Bernhard Klar & Alfred Muller & Gero Schindlmayr, 2004. "A spot market model for pricing derivatives in electricity markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 109-122.
    3. Peter Cramton, 2017. "Electricity market design," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 33(4), pages 589-612.
    4. Iivo Vehvilainen, 2002. "Basics of electricity derivative pricing in competitive markets," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 45-60.
    5. Yau, Sheena & Kwon, Roy H. & Scott Rogers, J. & Wu, Desheng, 2011. "Financial and operational decisions in the electricity sector: Contract portfolio optimization with the conditional value-at-risk criterion," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 67-77, November.
    6. Anderson, Edward J. & Hu, Xinmin, 2008. "Forward contracts and market power in an electricity market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 679-694, May.
    7. Yucekaya, Ahmet, 2013. "Bidding of price taker power generators in the deregulated Turkish power market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 506-514.
    8. Gülpınar, N. & Oliveira, F.S., 2012. "Robust trading in spot and forward oligopolistic markets," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 35-45.
    9. James Bushnell, 2007. "Oligopoly equilibria in electricity contract markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 225-245, December.
    10. Le Coq, Chloe & Orzen, Henrik, 2006. "Do forward markets enhance competition?: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 415-431, November.
    11. Termini, Valeria & Cavallo, Laura, 2007. "Spot, Bilateral and Futures Trading in Electricity Markets. Implications for Stability," International Energy Markets Working Papers 10265, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    12. Valeria Termini & Laura Cavallo, 2007. "“Spot, Bilateral and Futures Trading in Electricity Markets. Implications for Stability”," Working Papers 2007.19, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    13. Frank Wolak, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Hedge Contracts on Bidding Behavior in a Competitive Electricity Market," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 1-39.
    14. Deng, S.J. & Oren, S.S., 2006. "Electricity derivatives and risk management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 940-953.
    15. Mahenc, P. & Salanie, F., 2004. "Softening competition through forward trading," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 282-293, June.
    16. Oliveira, Fernando S. & Ruiz, Carlos & Conejo, Antonio J., 2013. "Contract design and supply chain coordination in the electricity industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(3), pages 527-537.
    17. Victor Martínez-de-Albéniz & Josep Maria Vendrell Simón, 2017. "A Capacitated Commodity Trading Model with Market Power," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Nicola Secomandi (ed.), Real Options in Energy and Commodity Markets, chapter 2, pages 31-60, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Ali Hortaçsu & Steven L. Puller, 2008. "Understanding strategic bidding in multi‐unit auctions: a case study of the Texas electricity spot market," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(1), pages 86-114, March.
    19. Koch, Christopher & Hirth, Lion, 2019. "Short-term electricity trading for system balancing: An empirical analysis of the role of intraday trading in balancing Germany's electricity system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    20. Chen Zhang & Wei Yan, 2019. "Spot Market Mechanism Design for the Electricity Market in China Considering the Impact of a Contract Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-23, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xie, Haonan & Jiang, Meihui & Zhang, Dongdong & Goh, Hui Hwang & Ahmad, Tanveer & Liu, Hui & Liu, Tianhao & Wang, Shuyao & Wu, Thomas, 2023. "IntelliSense technology in the new power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    2. Amir Karbassi Yazdi & Yong Tan & Cristi Spulbar & Ramona Birau & Jorge Alfaro, 2022. "An Approach for Supply Chain Management Contract Selection in the Oil and Gas Industry: Combination of Uncertainty and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(18), pages 1-20, September.
    3. Asghari, M. & Afshari, H. & Jaber, M.Y. & Searcy, C., 2023. "Credibility-based cascading approach to achieve net-zero emissions in energy symbiosis networks using an Organic Rankine Cycle," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oliveira, Fernando S. & Ruiz, Carlos & Conejo, Antonio J., 2013. "Contract design and supply chain coordination in the electricity industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(3), pages 527-537.
    2. Holmberg, Pär & Willems, Bert, 2015. "Relaxing competition through speculation: Committing to a negative supply slope," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PA), pages 236-266.
    3. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2018. "Analyzing the Impact of Electricity Market Structure Changes and Mergers: The Importance of Forward Commitments," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(1), pages 101-137, February.
    4. van Eijkel, Remco & Kuper, Gerard H. & Moraga-González, José L., 2016. "Do firms sell forward for strategic reasons? An application to the wholesale market for natural gas," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-35.
    5. Holmberg, Pär & Newbery, David, 2010. "The supply function equilibrium and its policy implications for wholesale electricity auctions," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 209-226, December.
    6. Van Moer, Geert, 2019. "Electricity market competition when forward contracts are pairwise efficient," MPRA Paper 96660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. N. Gülpınar & F. Oliveira, 2014. "Analysis of relationship between forward and spot markets in oligopolies under demand and cost uncertainties," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 267-283, July.
    8. Fiuza de Bragança, Gabriel Godofredo & Daglish, Toby, 2016. "Can market power in the electricity spot market translate into market power in the hedge market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 11-26.
    9. Fabra, Natalia & de Frutos, Maria-Angeles, 2008. "On the Impact of Forward Contract Obligations in Multi-Unit Auctions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Dressler, Luisa, 2016. "Support schemes for renewable electricity in the European Union: Producer strategies and competition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 186-196.
    11. George Daskalakis, Lazaros Symeonidis, Raphael N. Markellos, 2015. "Electricity futures prices in an emissions constrained economy: Evidence from European power markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    12. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2017. "Electricity market mergers with endogenous forward contracting," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 269-310, June.
    13. Nathan H. Miller & Joseph U. Podwol, 2020. "Forward Contracts, Market Structure and the Welfare Effects of Mergers," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 364-407, June.
    14. Holmberg, Pär & Tangerås, Thomas & Ahlqvist, Victor, 2018. "Central- versus Self-Dispatch in Electricity Markets," Working Paper Series 1257, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 27 Mar 2019.
    15. de Frutos, María-Ángeles & Fabra, Natalia, 2012. "How to allocate forward contracts: The case of electricity markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 451-469.
    16. Christian Redl & Derek Bunn, 2013. "Determinants of the premium in forward contracts," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 90-111, January.
    17. Di Cosmo, Valeria & Lynch, Muireann Á., 2016. "Competition and the single electricity market: Which lessons for Ireland?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 40-47.
    18. Daron Acemoglu, Ali Kakhbod, and Asuman Ozdaglar, 2017. "Competition in Electricity Markets with Renewable Energy Sources," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(KAPSARC S).
    19. Breitmoser, Yves, 2012. "Allaz-Vila competition with non-linear costs or demands," MPRA Paper 41772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Oliveira, Fernando S., 2017. "Strategic procurement in spot and forward markets considering regulation and capacity constraints," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(2), pages 540-548.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:159:y:2022:i:c:s1364032122001137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.