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Evaluating the economic feasibility of cellulosic ethanol: A meta-analysis of techno-economic analysis studies

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  • Aui, A.
  • Wang, Y.
  • Mba-Wright, M.

Abstract

The conversion of cellulosic biomass to ethanol as a viable way of decarbonizing the transportation sector has experienced a growing interest in the last few decades. However, this infant industry still struggles to succeed commercially. To examine the economic feasibility of cellulosic ethanol, this study conducts a meta-analysis using recently published Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) studies, which compute the Minimum Fuel Selling Price (MFSP) to measure the economic viability of ethanol production. This review finds that ethanol MFSPs range from $0.90–6.00/gallon with an average of $2.65/gallon, which is comparable to retail gasoline prices in the U.S. The considerable variation in MFSP estimates is due to the wide range of assumptions made by TEA studies. The unit cost of production was computed to examine the economies of scale effect, which resulted in a scale factor of 0.69. This estimate affirms the assumptions made by TEA studies. Multivariate linear regression shows that capital cost is positively correlated, while input capacity and output capacity are negatively correlated, with MFSP. These variables significantly impact MFSP, while pathway, feedstock type, and feedstock cost are not statistically significant due partly to data limitations. Findings from this analysis provide insights for improving the economic viability of cellulosic ethanol, which calls for a suite of government policies including financial incentives, mandates, and assistance programs for this industry to thrive.

Suggested Citation

  • Aui, A. & Wang, Y. & Mba-Wright, M., 2021. "Evaluating the economic feasibility of cellulosic ethanol: A meta-analysis of techno-economic analysis studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:145:y:2021:i:c:s1364032121003865
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111098
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    2. Larnaudie, Valeria & Ferrari, Mario Daniel & Lareo, Claudia, 2022. "Switchgrass as an alternative biomass for ethanol production in a biorefinery: Perspectives on technology, economics and environmental sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Gabrielle M. Myers & Daniel S. Andersen & Bobby J. Martens & D. Raj Raman, 2023. "Cost Assessment of Centralizing Swine Manure and Corn Stover Co-Digestion Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-17, May.
    4. Prabodh Illukpitiya & Firuz Yuldashev & Kabirat Nasiru, 2022. "Designing Harvesting and Hauling Cost Models for Energy Cane Production for Biorefineries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-12, July.
    5. Piradee Jusakulvijit & Alberto Bezama & Daniela Thrän, 2022. "An Integrated Assessment of GIS-MCA with Logistics Analysis for an Assessment of a Potential Decentralized Bioethanol Production System Using Distributed Agricultural Residues in Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-24, August.
    6. Nneka B. Ekwe & Maksim V. Tyufekchiev & Ali A. Salifu & Klaus Schmidt-Rohr & Zhaoxi Zheng & Alex R. Maag & Geoffrey A. Tompsett & Charles M. Cai & Emmanuel O. Onche & Ayten Ates & Winston O. Soboyejo , 2022. "Bamboo as a Cost-Effective Source of Renewable Carbon for Sustainable Economic Development in Low- and Middle-Income Economies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Baral, Nawa Raj & Mishra, Shruti K. & George, Anthe & Gautam, Sagar & Mishra, Umakant & Scown, Corinne D., 2022. "Multifunctional landscapes for dedicated bioenergy crops lead to low-carbon market-competitive biofuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    8. Aui, Alvina & Wang, Yu, 2023. "Cellulosic ethanol production: Assessment of the impacts of learning and plant capacity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    9. Aui, Alvina & Wang, Yu, 2022. "Post-RFS supports for cellulosic ethanol: Evaluation of economic and environmental impacts of alternative policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).

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