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An extended risk assessment approach for chemical plants applied to a study related to pipe ruptures

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  • Milazzo, Maria Francesca
  • Aven, Terje

Abstract

Risk assessments and Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) in particular have been used in the chemical industry for many years to support decision-making on the choice of arrangements and measures associated with chemical processes, transportation and storage of dangerous substances. The assessments have been founded on a risk perspective seeing risk as a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences. In this paper we point to the need for extending this approach to place a stronger emphasis on uncertainties. A recently developed risk framework designed to better reflect such uncertainties is presented and applied to a chemical plant and specifically the analysis of accidental events related to the rupture of pipes. Two different ways of implementing the framework are presented, one based on the introduction of probability models and one without. The differences between the standard approach and the extended approaches are discussed from a theoretical point of view as well as from a practical risk analyst perspective.

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  • Milazzo, Maria Francesca & Aven, Terje, 2012. "An extended risk assessment approach for chemical plants applied to a study related to pipe ruptures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 183-192.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:99:y:2012:i:c:p:183-192
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.12.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dubois, Didier, 2006. "Possibility theory and statistical reasoning," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 47-69, November.
    2. James Berger & Elías Moreno & Luis Pericchi & M. Bayarri & José Bernardo & Juan Cano & Julián Horra & Jacinto Martín & David Ríos-Insúa & Bruno Betrò & A. Dasgupta & Paul Gustafson & Larry Wasserman &, 1994. "An overview of robust Bayesian analysis," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 3(1), pages 5-124, June.
    3. Aven, Terje & Guikema, Seth, 2011. "Whose uncertainty assessments (probability distributions) does a risk assessment report: the analysts' or the experts'?," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(10), pages 1257-1262.
    4. Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2011. "Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 64-74.
    5. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2009. "On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, January.
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