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Interpretations of alternative uncertainty representations in a reliability and risk analysis context

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  • Aven, T.

Abstract

Probability is the predominant tool used to measure uncertainties in reliability and risk analyses. However, other representations also exist, including imprecise (interval) probability, fuzzy probability and representations based on the theories of evidence (belief functions) and possibility. Many researchers in the field are strong proponents of these alternative methods, but some are also sceptical. In this paper, we address one basic requirement set for quantitative measures of uncertainty: the interpretation needed to explain what an uncertainty number expresses. We question to what extent the various measures meet this requirement. Comparisons are made with probabilistic analysis, where uncertainty is represented by subjective probabilities, using either a betting interpretation or a reference to an uncertainty standard interpretation. By distinguishing between chances (expressing variation) and subjective probabilities, new insights are gained into the link between the alternative uncertainty representations and probability.

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  • Aven, T., 2011. "Interpretations of alternative uncertainty representations in a reliability and risk analysis context," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 353-360.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:96:y:2011:i:3:p:353-360
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2010.11.004
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    15. Pasanisi, Alberto & Keller, Merlin & Parent, Eric, 2012. "Estimation of a quantity of interest in uncertainty analysis: Some help from Bayesian decision theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 93-101.
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