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The use of real option in condition-based maintenance scheduling for wind turbines with production and deterioration uncertainties

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  • Ghamlouch, Houda
  • Fouladirad, Mitra
  • Grall, Antoine

Abstract

Preventive maintenance planning is an important problem for the handling of energy production systems with high down time costs. Throughout the last decade different maintenance strategies have been developed and optimized in order to minimize operational and maintenance costs whilst conserving and improving the system reliability and productivity. Preventive maintenance strategies are usually based on the monitoring and the prediction of the system behavior and its deterioration process. However, some industrial systems may be operating under a dynamic environment and/or variable working conditions. In this case both the deterioration and the production processes may not be deterministic and incorporate different types of uncertainties. In this paper, we consider the case of a preventive maintenance strategy for a production system subject to uncertainty. For this system, a decision-making procedure for condition-based maintenance planning is proposed. In order to consider uncertainty in production and deterioration processes, these latter are modeled by non-monotonic stochastic processes. The modeling of deterioration processes by means of jump-diffusion stochastic processes has been proposed in our previous work. In this paper, a decision-making approach for preventive maintenance strategies is proposed. Knowing the remaining useful life of a system, a simulation-based real options analysis is used in order to determine the best date to maintain. Considering a case study of a wind turbine with PHM structure, the decision-making approach is described and tested through an empirical example.

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  • Ghamlouch, Houda & Fouladirad, Mitra & Grall, Antoine, 2019. "The use of real option in condition-based maintenance scheduling for wind turbines with production and deterioration uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 614-623.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:188:y:2019:i:c:p:614-623
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.10.001
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    3. Sadeghian, Omid & Mohammadpour Shotorbani, Amin & Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam & Sadiq, Rehan & Hewage, Kasun, 2021. "Risk-averse maintenance scheduling of generation units in combined heat and power systems with demand response," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    4. Shi, Zunya & Chehade, Abdallah, 2021. "A dual-LSTM framework combining change point detection and remaining useful life prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    5. Yeter, B. & Garbatov, Y. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Life-extension classification of offshore wind assets using unsupervised machine learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    6. Li, He & Teixeira, Angelo P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2020. "A two-stage Failure Mode and Effect Analysis of offshore wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1438-1461.
    7. He, Rui & Tian, Zhigang & Wang, Yifei & Zuo, Mingjian & Guo, Ziwei, 2023. "Condition-based maintenance optimization for multi-component systems considering prognostic information and degraded working efficiency," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    8. Mohamed Benbouzid & Tarek Berghout & Nur Sarma & Siniša Djurović & Yueqi Wu & Xiandong Ma, 2021. "Intelligent Condition Monitoring of Wind Power Systems: State of the Art Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-33, September.
    9. Zhang, Chen & Hu, Di & Yang, Tao, 2022. "Anomaly detection and diagnosis for wind turbines using long short-term memory-based stacked denoising autoencoders and XGBoost," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    10. Jichuan Kang & Zihao Wang & C. Guedes Soares, 2020. "Condition-Based Maintenance for Offshore Wind Turbines Based on Support Vector Machine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-17, July.
    11. Ahmed Raza & Vladimir Ulansky, 2019. "Optimal Preventive Maintenance of Wind Turbine Components with Imperfect Continuous Condition Monitoring," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-24, October.

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